Bitcoin may be preparing for a deeper correction as traders brace for what analysts describe as the most uncertain Federal Reserve meeting in years. With the U.S. central bank expected to make a crucial interest rate decision on December 9–10, new analysis from on-chain intelligence provider CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin could drop toward $60,000 if the Federal Reserve holds rates steady.
The warning lands at a moment of heightened macro anxiety. Rate-cut expectations have cooled sharply in recent weeks, sending fresh waves of volatility across crypto markets and prompting investors to reassess their risk appetite.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin may fall between $60,000 and $80,000 by year-end if the Fed holds interest rates steady at its Dec. 9–10 policy meeting.
- Rate-cut odds have fallen below 50%, driving a sharp November decline in BTC.
- Analysts say the pullback is a market reset, not the start of prolonged weakness.
- Missing CPI and labour data have made the December FOMC unusually uncertain.
- Stablecoin reserves topping $72 billion could support a rebound once macro visibility returns.
BTC Drops as Rate-Cut Odds Collapse Below 50%
Bitcoin’s decline through November has been swift. The cryptocurrency has already fallen more than 30% from its early-October all-time high of $126,000, with prices dipping as low as $80,000 in the past week. BTC is currently trading around $87,073, up on the day but far from its recent peak.
The downward pressure has been closely tied to shifting expectations around the Fed’s next move. CryptoQuant notes that the probability of a December rate cut has slipped to roughly 40%, down from more than 70% earlier this quarter. The collapse in odds was triggered by missing labour market data following the U.S. government shutdown and lingering inflation near 3%.
“The December FOMC is one of the most uncertain in years,” CryptoQuant wrote. “With key labour indicators missing, the Fed enters the meeting with limited visibility.”
The firm added: “If the Fed chooses not to cut rates, the logic is straightforward: inflation remains near 3%, officials worry about easing too early, and missing data make policymakers more cautious.“
Why Bitcoin Reacts So Strongly to the Fed
Bitcoin’s sensitivity to monetary policy has strengthened over the past two years. In periods of tight policy, liquidity dries up, leverage contracts, and appetite for speculative assets weakens. Each drop in rate-cut expectations throughout November triggered immediate selloffs across BTC, tech stocks, and leveraged crypto derivatives.
“This scenario typically keeps liquidity tight, and risk appetite muted,” CryptoQuant said.
Fed policy has become even more influential as Bitcoin’s integration with traditional markets has grown. As Bitget Wallet CMO Jamie Elkaleh explains, “The latest volatility shows how tightly Bitcoin is now tied to global liquidity conditions.” Elkaleh added that the pullback is a “healthy recalibration rather than the start of prolonged weakness.”
Missing CPI Data Adds to FOMC Uncertainty
The December interest-rate decision is unusually difficult to predict because the Fed is missing key inflation and employment data.
- The Bureau of Labour Statistics cancelled the October jobs report.
- Two months of labour data remain delayed.
- The October CPI release was not published due to the shutdown.
This means the Fed will enter the December meeting with less economic data than usual, raising the probability that policymakers err on the side of caution and keep rates unchanged.
Technical Analysis: 50-Week MA and Lower Highs Signal Caution
Beyond macro conditions, technical indicators also suggest vulnerability.
David Arnal, a DeFi engineer at Sentora, said Bitcoin has printed several bearish signals that resemble pre-crash setups seen in 2018 and 2022.
Arnal highlights two red flags:
1. The 50-week moving average is curling downward
A declining 50W MA implies momentum is shifting from bullish to neutral or bearish.
“It shows the prior upward momentum has lost its pull,” he said, “and rallies are more likely to be sold than aggressively chased.”
2. Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted to “lower highs”
This pattern has historically appeared before major distribution phases.
While Arnal emphasises that a move to $60,000 is possible, he says the current cycle is very different from past drawdowns because structural demand is stronger.
ETF Flows and Corporate Buying Add Mixed Signals
Institutional behaviour is adding both pressure and support to the market.
ETF Outflows Create Short-Term Drag
Early Bitcoin investor Jordan Jefferson notes that some institutions have pulled back through spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“November already has $2.3 billion in outflows. That creates real pressure if it continues,” he told FastMR.
Corporate Treasuries Continue Accumulating
At the same time, corporations continue using Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
Jefferson pointed to Strategy, a corporate treasury firm:
- Holding 649,870 BTC
- Purchased 8,000+ BTC recently at ~$102,000
- One of over 200 companies building long-term Bitcoin balance sheets
“These aren’t traders flipping positions,” Jefferson said. “They’re building balance sheets.“
Stablecoin Liquidity Could Spark a Rebound
One major bullish factor remains in play: stablecoin buying power.
Stablecoin reserves on exchanges have surged to $72 billion, the highest in years. CryptoQuant highlights that every major BTC rally in 2025 began with quiet stablecoin accumulation during periods of macro stress.
“The liquidity is there,” the analysts wrote. “The key variable is whether the reserves remain sidelined or begin rotating into Bitcoin once macro risk fades.”
This suggests that if the Fed signals policy easing—or even softens its language—BTC could rebound quickly.
Fed President Williams Shifts Market Odds
Late last week, New York Fed President John Williams injected new volatility into markets when he suggested the central bank could lower rates “in the near term” without undermining its inflation fight.
His comments were interpreted as dovish, instantly pushing the odds of a December rate cut from 39% to 69%.
Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal called Williams’s remarks “the number one reason” for the jump in expectations.
Coinbase Institutional also noted that markets might be mispricing the odds of a cut based on overly cautious sentiment.
What to Watch at the December Fed Meeting
Traders should focus on three key signals at the December FOMC:
1. Rate Decision
A hold increases the chance BTC tests $60,000.
A cut may trigger a relief rally.
2. Inflation and Economic Projections
Upward revisions could reignite sell pressure; softer projections would help risk assets.
3. Jerome Powell’s Tone
Even a slight shift toward dovishness could be enough to turn crypto markets upward.
Outlook: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Resilience
Bitcoin faces a delicate macro environment heading into the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year. A drop toward $60,000 remains a realistic possibility if the central bank holds interest rates steady and maintains a cautious tone.
But analysts overwhelmingly agree: this pullback is a reset, not a collapse.
With rising stablecoin liquidity, ongoing institutional adoption, and stronger long-term holders, the market remains on a solid footing.
FastMR will continue monitoring all developments surrounding the Bitcoin Fed rate decision, market liquidity, and institutional flows as December approaches.
