Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2015
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: TRY17.16bn (USD9.00bn) in 2013 to TRY18.28bn (USD8.38bn) in 2014; +6.5% in local currency and -6.9% US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: TRY99.46bn (USD52.19bn) in 2013 to TRY109.37bn (USD50.17bn) in 2014; +10.0% in local currency and -3.9% US dollar terms.
Turkey's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score for Q115 is 55.9, unchanged from the previous quarter. The country is ranked the sixth most attractive business environment out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe. Turkey's large drug market, coupled with the sector's long-term growth potential, means that the country scores considerably higher than the average for the region on this indicator. In terms of risks, several rounds of pricing reforms mean that the country scores less favourably, and below the regional average for this indicator.
Key Trends And Developments
The Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
- New monthly data released by the Turkish drugmakers' body Association of Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies (AIFD) for 2014 points to a real-term decline in pharmaceutical sales. Although sales grew in the first seven months of the year in lira terms by 6.2% to TRY9.38bn, in US dollar terms, sales fell by 7.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to USD4.30bn, worse than our already bearish expectations. As a result, we have revised down our forecast for 2014, 2015 and 2016 on the back of this data.
BMI's Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Turkey, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMIs forecast analysis, and taken together with BMIs political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
BMIs Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per 000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMIs Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the markets risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
Despite a challenging pricing and reimbursement situation compounded by currency uncertainty, BMI still believes the Turkish pharmaceutical market is an attractive long - term prospect as higher year-on-year growth rates will return from 2015 . In contrast to European markets where manufacturers can expect to achieve higher prices, but with a stagnant growth outlook, Turkey offers strong growth potential if drugmakers are able to accept prices that are considerably below the European average and turn a profit on the low margins available .
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2018)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Turkey 2012-2018)
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Table: Turkey - GDP By Expenditure
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Turkey Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
Research & Development
Intellectual Property Regime
Market Access Issues
Table: Turkish Pharmaceutical Pricing Decrees
Table: Pharmacist Discount Related To Annual Sales Revenue (VAT Excluded)
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi (MN) Pharmaceuticals
Merck & Co
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
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