Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2015
Headline Expenditure Projections
BMI Risk/Reward Index
- Pharmaceuticals: EUR704mn (USD943mn) in 2014 to EUR714mn (USD893mn) in 2015; 1.5% in local currency terms and -5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
- Healthcare: EUR3.0bn (USD4.0bn) in 2014 to EUR3.1bn (USD3.9bn) in 2015; 3.2% in local currency terms and -3.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
Slovenia scores 50.4 out of a total of 100 in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index for Q215 - unchanged from the previous quarter. This places the country 10th in our index of 20 countries and below the average for the region, which is 51.1.
Key Trends & Developments
The Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
- Krka's weak nine month financial results confirmed our earlier warning of the risk posed by Russian and Ukrainian exposure to CEE pharmaceutical companies. Given the firm's largely European exposure and the significant headwinds for the pharmaceutical sector in the region, achieving a growth target of 5% in 2015 will be difficult.
- The health ministries of Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia are considering the possibility of joint tenders for the procurement of medicines and medical devices, according to the announcement of Director of Slovenian Health Insurance Institute Samo Fakin in October 2014. The extent of the cost savings from joint procurement has been not assessed, but the procurement will attract favourable pricing from suppliers, noted Fakin.
- Worsening dynamics within Russia and the CIS markets will impact pharmaceutical sector growth. Russia represented the single largest market in the region and acted as the primary driver of growth in the CIS region, but...
BMI's Slovenia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Slovenia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Slovenia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Slovenian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Slovenia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMIs forecast analysis, and taken together with BMIs political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
BMIs Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per 000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMIs Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the markets risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
Our updated forecasts for Slovenia's pharmaceutical and healthcare expenditure indicate a rebound this year from a decline trend that was seen over the past three years. Admittedly, this is true in local currency terms, while the value in USD is expected to take a significant hit, especially in pharmaceutical sales.
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2010-2018)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Slovenia 2012-2018)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Slovenia 2012-2018)
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
Risks To Outlook
Table: Economic Activity (Slovenia 2009-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Slovenia Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
Research & Development
Intellectual Property Regime
Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
Merck & Co
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Slovenia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Slovenia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
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