Japan Tourism Report Q2 2015
In 2014 Japan eased the visa regulations for inbound tourists from a range of countries, including China, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Arrivals from China in particular saw a sharp increase in the first few months of 2014, and Japan is now rated as the top destination for Chinese travellers. This is likely to continue in 2015, particularly as Japan has announced it would further ease visa restrictions for affluent Chinese visitors - extending visa allowances to five years and permitting unrestricted travel across Japan. Previously, particular visas required tourists to specifically visit Okinawa or the prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima. These factors contribute to our forecast for overall arrivals growth of 9.7% in 2015, with similar growth expected throughout the forecast period to 2019, when arrivals are expected to reach 15.8mn.
The outlook is marginally less positive for Japan's outbound travel market, where growth rates will remain subdued due to the less-than-favourable domestic economic environment. Real GDP growth is forecast to come in at just 0.8% in 2015 and 0.7% in 2016, while unemployment is set to increase slightly as wages are falling. All these factors will hamper growth in outbound tourism; however, it is worth noting that with 24.6mn departures forecast in 2015, the outbound tourism sector significantly outweighs inbound travel and will continue to do so despite the higher growth in inbound tourism.
Japan's government is highly...
The Japan Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Japan Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Japanese tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
BMIs Tourism Risk Reward Index
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMIs Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a markets risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
Japan's dynamic tourism sector reported healthy growth in 2014, with a sharp increase in arrivals attributed to a range of factors including the country's increased affordability, a wider range of international flight routes and a relaxation of foreign visa requirements from major source markets. This growth is set to continue in 2015 and throughout the remainder of the forecast period, with Japan set to capitalise upon its rising global profile in the run-up to the 2020 Olympic and Paralympics Games.
BMI Industry View
Table: Inbound Tourism (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Japan Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000, 2011-2018
Table: Outbound Tourism (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Japan Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Destinations By Departures, '000, 2011-2018
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Japan 2011-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk Index
Table: Top 10 Global Hotels Groups Present In Japan
Super Hotel Co
Sunroute Hotel Chain
Miyako Hotels & Resorts
Global Industry Overview
Global Assumptions - Q1 2015
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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