Turkey Tourism Report Q1 2015
We expect to see total tourist arrivals increase by 6.5mn between 2015 and 2018, taking the number of journeys to Turkey in 2018 to 44.9mn, a significant increase on previous forecasts. This increase is due to improving economic growth and increased consumer spending across most of Turkey's key source markets, continued investment in tourism and transport infrastructure in the country, and the prospect of effective marketing of Turkey's many tourism assets. Arrivals may also be boosted by travellers avoiding other unstable destinations in the Middle East and North Africa due to security concerns, just as Turkey's domestic security concerns seem to be easing, as well as high-spending Russian tourists avoiding EU destinations in the wake of EU sanctions against Russia. A diverse group of source markets means that this growth is likely to be resilient to regional downward pressure on arrivals as Turkey begins to increase its proportion of arrivals from the Middle East.
Outbound travel is expected to record higher growth rates than arrivals, though the total figure will still be much smaller in 2018, at an estimated 8.9mn. This, combined with the growth in arrivals, will lead to a boost in hotel numbers (we expect to see 1,300 new hotels open in Turkey over the next four years), industry value and takings from tourism-related receipts.
Several of the world's leading hotel chains are opening dozens of new hotels across the country in light of these positive indicators for growth. Work is also under way to significantly boost Turkey's air travel infrastructure, which delivers the majority of tourists to the country,...
The Turkey Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Turkey Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Turkish tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
BMIs Tourism Risk Reward Index
- Inbound Tourism: Total arrivals (000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by region (000 and growth % y-o-y), arrivals by country (000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 source countries for arrivals.
- Outbound Tourism: Total departures (000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y), departures by country (000 and growth % y-o-y), top 10 destination countries.
- Travel & Receipts: Methods of travel for arrivals (air, ship, rail) (000 and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for transport (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), international tourism receipts for travel items (USDbn and growth % y-o-y).
- Hotels: Hotel industry value (USDbn and growth % y-o-y), number of hotels (000 and growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays (000 and growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of total
BMIs Risk Reward Indices provide investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a markets risks and potential rewards.
Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
This section provides insight into key domestic players in the hotel industry, discussing, for example, the number of hotels, brands, financial data, geographical spread, recent developments and strategies of individual companies.
The Tourism Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reprts instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
Turkey's tourism market shows signs of healthy growth, with robust increases in arrivals forecast for the 2015-2018 period. This is likely to lead to a range of other positive developments for key market indicators, particularly hotel numbers. Alongside this investment, the government and private sector are investing heavily in transport infrastructure.
BMI Industry View
Table: Inbound Tourism (Turkey 2011-2018)
Table: Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000 (Turkey 2011-2018)
Table: Outbound Tourism (Turkey 2011-2018)
Table: Top 10 Markets By Departures, '000 (Turkey 2011-2018)
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Turkey 2011-2018)
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Turkey 2011-2018)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Turkey 2011-2018)
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Turkey 2011-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups' Presence In Turkey
Table: Turkey Airports Projects
Dedeman Hotels & Resorts
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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