Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2015

Jan 16, 2015 - Business Monitor International - 144 pages - USD $1,295
Abstract Table of Contents Request Details Related
The Central America region continues to struggle with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector, which decimated the 2013 crop. We believe that coffee production will remain at risk over the next few years as the nature of subsistence farming will limit investment into safeguards. Countries in Central America are generally dependent on corn imports and we expect the corn production deficit to widen over our forecast period. Strength in the US dollar over this time frame will hurt the capital accounts of the region's countries. We expect Central America to remain self-sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has potential to attract investment over the medium term.

Key Forecasts
  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 7.7% to 14.8mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems. We see more potential for the sector in the long term due to government support schemes.
  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 12.0% to 6.8mn tonnes. Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs.
  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 12.5% to 5.9mn tonnes. Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2017/18, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term.
  • 201 5 real GDP growth: 3. 3 % year-on-year (y-o-y). A moderate rise from 3.1% in 2014. Real GDP growth is predicted to average 3.4% between 2015 and 2018.
  • Consumer price inflation: 4. 6 % y-o-y in 201 5 . An increase from 4.1% in 2014. Inflation is predicted to average 4.6% between 2015 and 2018.
Industry Outlook

We expect regional grains production growth to remain subdued in 2014/15 due to the low price of corn and soybean...

The Central America Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Central America Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits
  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
  • Consumption Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts are accompanied by a Risks-to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities covered by the Agribusiness market Reports include:

Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all Reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.


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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.