Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q1 2015
- Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 10.0 % to 341 ,000 tonnes. Increased investment in the sector as well as booming consumption on the back of growing confectionery and soft drinks demand will support growth.
- Corn consumption growth to 2018: 7.3 % to 5. 4 mn tonnes. A combination of lower average prices and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.
- Coffee production growth from 2013/14 to 2017/18: 31.3 % to 1.1 mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees, and from incentives for small producers.
- 201 5 real GDP growth: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), stable compared with the 2014 level; forecast to average 6.7% over 2013-2018.
- 2015 c onsumer price inflation: 6.0% average (down from 6.5% average in 2014).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.5 % y-o-y increase to USD3.2 bn in 2014/15, forecast to average growth of 3.2% per year between 2014/15 and 2017/18.
We forecast corn production in Tanzania to come in at 5.0mn tonnes in 2014/15, a decline of 6.6% y-o-y. Lower yields owing to unfavourable weather and lower input use has damaged the country's grain crop over the last couple of years.
Similar to many other Sub-Saharan African nations, we do not expect Tanzania to significantly improve its grains output via improved yield growth. Furthermore, lower average corn prices relative to the last few years will discourage significant plantings growth.
In contrast to the general optimism...
The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMIs key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each markets agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
BMIs Commodity Price Analysis
- Consumption Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts examine the trends influencing BMIs production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a countrys trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMIs Forecasts are accompanied by a Risks-to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMIs daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities covered by the Agribusiness market Reports include:
Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note not all Reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
We continue to favour the Tanzanian sugar and coffee industries over the medium term owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter.
BMI Industry View
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2012-2018)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Monthly Grains Strategy
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Africa GM Outlook
Table: Farm Size By Region
Africa Machinery Outlook
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2011-2018)
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
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