Colombia Infrastructure Report Q1 2015
Key Trends And Developments
Risk Factors Still Present
- With continued strong backing from the Colombian government for the sector, we maintain our outlook of a healthy annual average real construction growth of 8.2% between 2015 and 2020.
- Strong economic growth - with real GDP growth of 4.6% forecast for 2015 - and expansion in coal and mining, coupled with the multiple signed free trade agreements are creating significant demand for new capacity and better quality infrastructure. Improved access to ports and adequate highways will be essential if the country is to meet the expected increase in exports.
- New rules regulating tax changes, force majeure, land expropriation, and environmental permits will significantly reduce the risk of investing in Colombia's ambitious road infrastructure programme. These measures will facilitate access to financing and will also strengthen the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model in the country.
- Colombia scores just 3.7 out of 10 for corruption in the country risk section of our infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, following several corruption scandals within Colombia's public works sector. This illustrates our concern of the impact on the country's business environment.
- That said, a concerted effort is being made to stamp out corruption in awarding tenders. This has been shown by the creation of the new National Infrastructure Agency (ANI) - which replaced INCO as the official entity in charge of infrastructure concessions. In addition, the government has started implementing the OECD Transparency Mechanism for contract procurement (High Level Reporting Mechanism - HLRM). This...
The Colombia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Colombia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Colombian infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Colombian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMIs key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The Reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMIs Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMIs Risk Reward Indices provide investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a markets risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provides indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The infrastructure Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
We maintain our positive view of the Colombian construction industry through 2015 and forecast solid real growth of 10.8% in industry value. Our bullish outlook for the country is supported by new government policies to improve the business environment, a strengthening PPP framework, and more diversified sources of project finance.
BMI Industry View
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Colombia 2012-2017)
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Colombia 2018-2023)
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Colombia 2012-2017)
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Colombia 2018-2023)
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
Major Projects Table - Transport
Table: Major Projects Table - Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Colombia 2012-2017)
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Colombia 2018-2023)
Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Colombia 2012-2017)
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Colombia 2018-2023)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Colombia's Risk/Reward Ratings
Latin America - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: EQS Table
Global Industry Overview
Global Infrastructure Overview
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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