Greece Tourism Report Q1 2015
Greece's wealth of natural, archaeological and cultural attractions have made it one of Europe's most popular destinations for decades. The flow of tourists was reduced abruptly as a result of the political unrest relating to two consecutive EU bailouts and austerity programmes as recently as 2012. However, with political and economy stability in Greece finally re-establishing themselves, BMI expects to see an upsurge in tourist arrivals between 2015 and 2018 of around 5% y-o-y. We forecast that arrivals will surpass pre-crisis levels, nearing 20mn by 2018. This will be encouraged by relatively low costs in Greece as the domestic economy remains weak, a trend that could potentially lead to increased investment in the tourism sector as land prices and labour costs remain relatively low.
However, stubbornly high unemployment and sluggish domestic economic performance will mean that outbound travel will remain relatively static over the same period, though there could be some pick-up in departures in 2018 depending on the progress of the national economy and the unemployment rate in particular.
Russian arrivals figures have been hampered by the escalating tensions between the EU and Russia over the crisis in Ukraine in 2014. This trend could well continue depending on the development of the political situation, however we expect to see a slow recovery in Russian arrivals from 2015 onwards, though by 2018 Russian tourists in Greece will still number far fewer than in 2013.
Greece's travel infrastructure is...
The Greece Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Greece Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Greek tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Greece to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Greek tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Greek tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Greece.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMIs Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
With Greece estimated to have finally returned to economic growth in 2014, the outlook for 2015-2018 is looking relatively positive, especially as tourist arrivals are set to increase healthily over this period, drawn by low prices and an established product. However, lower prices make investment in the industry less attractive in the short term and the possible introduction of higher hotel rates in 2015 will further squeeze profitability for international investors.
BMI Industry View
Table: Inbound Tourism (Greece 2011-2018)
Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Arrivals, '000 (Greece 2011-2018)
Table: Outbound Tourism (Greece 2011-2018)
Table: Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Departures, '000 (Greece 2011-2018)
Table: Receipts For Transport And Travel (Greece 2011-2018)
Table: Breakdown Of Methods Of Tourist Travel (Greece 2011-2018)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Greece 2011-2018)
Table: Hotels And Restaurants Industry Value (Greece 2011-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups' Presence in Greece
Table: Greece Transport Infrastructure Projects - Airports
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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