Uganda Defence & Security Report Q1 2015

Dec 24, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 73 pages - USD $1,295
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In recent years, the size of the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF) and the country's arms procurement have grown significantly, a trend BMI expects to continue over the forecast period, from 2015 through to 2019. This primarily reflects the growing role of the army in Uganda's domestic political landscape, which we attribute to President Yoweri Museveni's increasing domestic political isolation, as well as the need to maintain the country's status as a strategic ally of the US. In addition, Ugfanda's desire to become a regional power and the burgeoning arms race with Sudan to drive procurement. As such, we expect imports to Uganda, which lacks its own military-industrial base, from Russia and China in particular, to steadily increase for the foreseeable future.

Uganda's lack of an indigenous defence industry and underdeveloped manufacturing capabilities in general, leave it reliant upon procurements from foreign countries to satisfy the demands of its armed forces. Before 1990, these demands were readily met by military aid from the Soviet Union, which was eager to bolster the capabilities of one of the pro-Soviet states against the US. Now the armed forces are dependent upon states including China, Belarus and the Czech Republic for military equipment, some of which are alleged to have been obtained through unorthodox and sometimes undisclosed channels.

This limitation, and the overall number of armed services personnel and their recurrent cost, leaves little money available for 'big ticket' military purchases. Uganda previously agreed to buy six Su-30MKs from Russia. The deal was said to be worth around USD200mn at the time, though the actual cost proved to be USD720mn. The deal was extremely surprising given that Uganda's military needs do not require such expensive equipment and the difficulty and expense involved in developing the support capabilities needed to allow these fighters to operate effectively. This has not deterred Museveni from...

The Uganda Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Uganda Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Ugandan defence and security industry.

Key Benefits
  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Ugandan defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.


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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.