Poland Agribusiness Report Q1 2015

Dec 11, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 97 pages - USD $1,295
Abstract Table of Contents Request Details Related
Polish meat producers remain in a challenging situation due to import bans imposed by several states on Polish pork and by Russia on agricultural produce from all EU member states. Although pork producers are facing the greatest pressure, we believe they have the potential to bounce back more quickly thanks to a strong base of domestic demand supplemented by growing export opportunities. Dairy producers are also suffering blowback from the embargo although a more general fall in prices is a bigger concern. We expect 2015 to be a difficult year, but the longer term outlook is more promising as we expect prices to recover and demand for processed dairy products to increase. Sugar production looks to have stalled after 2012/13's recovery and we are no longer so positive about the capacity of the industry to compete post liberalisation as yields have remained stubbornly low.

Key Forecasts
  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 14.2 % to 9.8mn tonnes. Expansion in output will be relatively sluggish as this growth comes from a low base. Low global prices will limit export potential.
  • Pork consumption growth to 2018 : 3 .2% to 1.7mn tonnes. Demand will have a brief spurt in the short term due to a supply glut before returning to marginal year-on-year (y-o-y) declines in the later years of the forecast period.
  • 2015 real GDP growth: 3.1 % (up from an estimated 2.8% in 2014; forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2015 and by an average of 3.3% annually 2014-2018).
  • Consumer price inflation: 0.9 % y-o-y on average for 201 5 (up from 0.4% y-o-y estimated for 2014).
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.0 % y-o-y decrease to USD1 8.3 bn in 2015, forecast to increase 1.4% annually on average between 2014 and 2018.
Industry Developments

Polish grain producers are to build a large-scale deepwater grain terminal in the port city of Gdansk to tap into growing overseas demand, particularly from...

The Poland Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Poland Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits
  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Poland.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Poland Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.


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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.