Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2015
The Indonesian government is increasingly supportive of the tourism industry, and following elections in 2014 it set up the first stand-alone Ministry of Tourism - tasked with promoting and expanding tourism in Indonesia. The new tourism board recently announced it is targeting annual tourism arrivals of 20mn by 2019. New measures, such as the removal of the USD35 visa on arrival for visitors from Australia, Japan, China, South Korea and Russia from early 2015 will certainly help to boost regional tourism. At present, however, we believe 19mn is an overly ambitious target: our forecasts put arrivals at 10.9mn in 2018.
Countries within the Asia Pacific region will continue to dominate travel into and out of Indonesia, particularly nearby Malaysia and Singapore, which benefit from a multitude of sea and air travel connections. By 2018 we expect Malaysia and Singapore to receive some 7.6mn visitors a year from Indonesia. As one of the most populous countries in the world, Indonesia offers enormous potential as a tourism market. With GDP expected to increase steadily, boosting private financial consumption, we expect to see very healthy increases in outbound travel to a range of tourist destinations throughout our forecast period to 2018.
Indonesia is investing in improving and expanding its transport network, which is vital if it is to achieve its aim of expanding tourism beyond Bali. A key concern is improving the safety record of ferries used to travel between the many islands. Air travel connections will also...
The Indonesia Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Indonesia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Indonesian tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMIs Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The future is looking bright for Indonesia's tourism market, with healthy growth forecast across inbound and outbound tourism, industry value and tourism-related expenditure. The government is highly supportive of the industry and is investing heavily in improving the country's transport infrastructure network in order to improve safety and access. Concerns remain, however, regarding the viability of the foreign investment environment and high crime rates.
BMI Industry View
Table: Indonesia Inbound Tourism, 2011-2018
Table: Indonesia Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
Table: Indonesia Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018
Table: Indonesia Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Destinations By Departures, 2011-2018 ('000)
Table: Indonesia Receipts For Transport & Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Indonesia Methods Of Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Indonesia Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
Table: Indonesia Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Security Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Rating
Table: Indonesia Airport Infrastructure Projects
Table: Global Hotel Groups Present In Indonesia
Accor Asia Pacific
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Arrivals
Table: Global Hotel Room Numbers
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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