Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2015
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BYR8,927bn in 2013 (USD1.00bn) to BYR11,490bn (USD1.09bn) in 2014; +28.7% in local currency terms and +9.2% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: BYR29,768bn (USD3.34bn) in 2013 to BYR37,249bn (USD3.55bn) in 2014; +25.1% in local currency terms and +6.1% in US dollar terms.
In our latest Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) matrix, Belarus is 14th out of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Easter Europe (CEE) region, having considerably improved since the start of the year. However, although its Rewards variables (and in particular its Industry Rewards) are favourable, Belarus will continue to represent a very risky market on account of unresolved issues, such as the lack of patent protection, corruption and political tensions.
Key Trends And Developments
The Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
- Belarusian deputies have adopted amendments to the Law on Medicines. The amendments to the law will simplify procedures of medical product registration, strengthen control over the quality of medicines and regulate prices. Under the current law, registration is carried out every five years, but the new law provides for the possibility of issuing a perpetual licence. The law also stipulates that only medication with an international certificate will enter the market, and in a year the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union - ensuring that quality controls remain rigorous.
- Grindeks is considering building a plant in Russia or Belarus to serve its growing business in the CIS markets.
- Belarus is set to join the PIC/S Scheme and the...
BMI's Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Belarusian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Belarus to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belarusian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Belarusian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belarus.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)
Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)
Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)
Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)
OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)
Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)
Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Belarusian market will suffer from the impact of depreciation and economic instability as the country's economy becomes ever more reliant on Russia n loans to function. Furthermore, wage growth mandated by the government will become unsustainable, threatening to dampen internal consumption. Belarus will present little reward for high risk for most pharmaceutical companies in the region.
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Belarus Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Belarus Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Belarus 2010-2018)
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Belarus 2010-2018)
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Belarus 2010-2018)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Belarus Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: Belarus Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (local currency) (Belarus 2012-2018)
Other Healthcare Data
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
Table: Economic Activity (Belarus 2009-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Belarus Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
Healthcare Sector Reforms
Research And Development
Recent Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Rights
Pricing And Reimbursement
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Belarus' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Belarus' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
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