Bulgaria Tourism Report 2015
The surge in tourist numbers travelling to Bulgaria, growing at 4-5% annually from 2015-2018 is driven by increased economic stability in Europe, which provides the vast bulk of arrivals to the country. In addition, the diplomatic fallout from the Ukraine crisis will see more Russian and Ukrainian tourists depart to Bulgaria, despite the country's EU status. Key growth areas in Bulgaria's tourism offer include health tourism and the country's winter tourism sector, which the government is especially keen to promote in order to address the market's seasonality issues.
Outbound travel will also expand over the next four years, at a faster rate than inbound travel and outbound tourists will mainly visit neighbouring countries in Europe such as Romania, Turkey and Greece. Despite the growth in inbound and outbound travel we do not expect to see a substantial increase in new hotel openings over coming years. This is due in part to the low occupancy rates at present as well as persistent concerns around the country's bureaucracy and potential corruption issues.
Key BMI Forecasts include:
The Bulgaria Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
- We expect total arrivals to reach 9.94mn in 2015. Of this, the majority will come from Europe (9.03mn tourists).
- Outbound travel will reach 4.28mn departures in 2015.
- Tourism-related receipts are set to reach USD5.12bn in 2015.
- The hotel and restaurant industry value will remain stable at around USD1bn.
- The number of hotels will rise to 3,210 (an increase of less than 1% y-o-y).
BMI's Bulgaria Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Bulgaria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bulgarian tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMIs Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Bulgarian tourism industry is set for growth, both in terms of inbound and outbound tourism, over the remainder of the current forecast period. Strong growth in arrivals in particul ar will drive growth in tourism -related receipts and an increase in the hotel industry value .
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