Philippines Telecommunications Report Q1 2015
Key Trends And Developments
- Strong mobile subscription growth continued in Q214, reaching a subscription base of 111.9mn, a 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate. We now expect a total of 130.726mn mobile subscriptions by the end of our five year forecast period to 2018.
- The number of fixed-line subscribers could be experiencing a sustained period of contraction due to mobile substitution. We forecast 2.17mn subscribers by YE18, representing a 2.5% penetration rate.
- Despite the mobile market effectively being a duopoly, mobile ARPUs continue to trend lower. Without a concerted effort to move towards higher revenue-generating products and subscribers, operator ARPU will continue to fall.
In September 2014, Philippines-based Globe Telecom entered an agreement with Alcatel-Lucent to transform its wireless network infrastructure from WiMAX to LTE-TDD and LTE-FDD technology in the Visayas and Mindanao regions. Alcatel-Lucent's LTE Radio Access Network (RAN) will be used by the operator to convert the existing WiMAX network to LTE standard at around 1,200 sites across the two regions. This project also supports the Philippine government's thrust to expand the reach of broadband internet services which has been emphasised as an area for national improvement, according to Globe.
The Philippines Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Philippines's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Philippines Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Philippines.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Philippines's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Market Data Analysis
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Philippines telecoms market is largely a two-horse race dominated by incumbent Philippine Long Distance Telephone (PLDT) - which owns 63.4% subscription share - and Globe Telecom - with 36.6% share of the mobile market in Q114. A new entrant - media conglomerate ABS-CBN Corporation -launched its MVNO service under the ABS-CBNmobile brand in December 2013 using the network infrastructure of Globe Telecom. Despite the new competition, BMI believes market dynamics is likely to remain in favour of PLDT and Globe Telecom given their strong brand and unassailable scale, which make it hard for new entrants to compete effectively.
BMI Industry View
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Table: Asia-Pacific Telecoms Risk/Rewards Ratings - Q414
Table: Philippines Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013
Table: Mobile Operators Prepaid And Postpaid APRU (PHP)
Mobile Operator Data
Table: The Philippines Market Overview
Table: Smart Communications
Table: Globe Telecom
Table: Sun Cellular (acquired by PLDT)
Asia Mobile Content
Increased Smartphone Adoption A Key Enabler
Mobile Games Sector Competition Intensifies
Three-Year Outlook For Asian Mobile Games
How Mobile Operators Fit In
Table: Philippines' Fixed Line Market ('000)
Table: Major Broadband Operator Subscriber Figures ('000)
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Telecoms Market Developments
Table: Philippines - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Regulatory Developments
Table: Key Players
Table: Selected Operator Revenues (USDmn)
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company
Digital Telecommunications Philippines
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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