India Telecommunications Report Q1 2015
- By September 2014, the Indian mobile subscriber base rose to 920mn subscribers; we forecast 941.2mn subscribers by the end of 2014 and 1.084bn by 2018.
- The deployment of 4G TD-LTE mobile broadband networks is well underway. Added to the ongoing rollout of 3G, there are considerable opportunities for operators to counter falling incomes from voice and messaging, although we caution that the premium non-voice services market is still in its infancy.
- Operators harbour large numbers of inactive subscriptions and, as these are gradually stripped away, so a healthier picture of mobile ARPU development will emerge. However, reduced 2G voice and 3G data tariffs are undermining progress in this area.
- 3G/4G subscriptions are forecast to grow from 66.1mn in 2013 to 99.2mn in 2014 before rising to 202.0mn in 2018.
- Wireline broadband is undermined by the high cost of services and devices as well as a lack of adequate infrastructure. The Bharat Broadband next-generation network project has made no progress in the last two years. We forecast total wireline and mobile broadband subscribers to rise to 30.4mn in 2014 and to...
The India Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of India's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's India Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in India.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for India to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in India's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in India.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Market Data Analysis
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Despite the huge investment opportunities posed by the lack of adequate broadband infrastructure in metropolitan markets and basic services in rural areas, the Indian telecoms market is challenging for new and established players alike. The fluid regulatory regime is open to highly variable interpretation by the government, the regulators and the most influential businesses while the fragmented nature of the mobile and wireline markets - caused by the imposition of a regional licensing scheme - means that investment has largely targeted the most affluent areas of the country and bypassed large numbers of rural consumers. In an effort to justify investment in mobile and broadband infrastructures, operators have resorted to intense price competition to win and retain consumers. This is not sustainable over the long term.
BMI Industry View
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2011-2018)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (India 2011-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Rating
Table: Asia-Pacific Telecoms Risk/Rewards Ratings - Q414
Table: India Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
Table: India Mobile Subscribers By Operator, June 2014
Table: Monthly ARPU - GSM (INR), Q114
Table: Monthly ARPU - CDMA (INR), Q114
Table: Selected 3G Subscriber And Cell Site Data
Mobile Operator Data
Table: India Mobile Market Overview
Table: Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL)
Table: Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL)
Table: Bharti Airtel
Table: Reliance Communications
Table: Vodafone India
Table: IDEA Cellular
Table: Sistema Shyam Teleservices (MTS India)
Asia Mobile Content
Increased Smartphone Adoption A Key Enabler
Mobile Games Sector Competition Intensifies
Three-Year Outlook For Asian Mobile Games
How Mobile Operators Fit In
Wireline Voice Market
Table: India Wireline Subscriptions By Operator, March 2014
Table: Urban/Rural Subscriptions By Operator, March 2014
Table: India Wireline Internet Market, March 2014
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Key Players
Table: Selected Operators Annual Revenue (INRmn)
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL)
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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