United Kingdom Metals Report Q1 2015
Serving as a constant reminder that the recovery may be built upon fragile ground, however, monthly data for activity in the steel sector in the UK has been volatile during the first eight months of 2014. Indeed, after a strong start with 30.8% year-on-year growth in January, a 9.3% drop off in activity in April, and a sluggish recover since means that that month-on-month activity at the end of August (latest available data) sits not much higher than where it stood eight months previously. Only a 11.7% improvement in production in August helped push overall ourput in the year-to-date back into positive territory.
Going forward, we expect the UK autos industry to provide a much-needed boost to domestic steel demand, as both vehicle demand and production continue to recover. However, conditions for firms in the steel industry will remain challenging due to a combination of low output prices, high input costs, regulation and weak external demand for UK steel exports. Opportunities for local firms exist in servicing domestic manufacturing such as autos and demand for high end steel products in fast growing but lower technology emerging markets. The impact of the UK construction sector may be slightly more moderate, however. Despite robust growth in overall activity,...
The United Kingdom Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in United Kingdom.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).
After a strong year for the UK steel industry in both production and consumption in 2013, we are forecast ing the recovery to remain on track, albeit at a slower pace going forward. In line with its European counterparts, the UK metals industry has been rocked by low profitability that has led to capacity reductions and disinvestment. However, the worst is probably over for the UK, as slightly stronger domestic demand and recent investment from international firms such as Sahaviriya Steel Industries and Tata Steel should arrest the decline in sector fortunes and ensure that the sector continues to accelerate through to the end of our forecast period in 2018.
BMI Industry View
Steel: Recent Investment To Arrest Slowdown
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (United Kingdom 2009-2018)
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (United Kingdom 2003-2012)
Steel Price Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Monthly Metals Update
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Largest European Listed Metals Producers
Latest Financial Results
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Tata Steel Limited
Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data
This report does not have a list of Companies Mentioned available
This report does not have a press release associated with it