France Metals Report Q1 2015
Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013, a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.
While France has been one of Europe's better performing steel-producing countries, output was still 20% below typical pre-2008 levels in 2014 and we estimate that utilisation levels are averaging 70-75%. Cuts in crude steel-making capacity are therefore inevitable in order to ensure the long-term stability of both the French and EU steel industries. For now, however, we are forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in steel production in France for the remainder of our forecast period, with growth averaging 0.7% y-o-y to reach 16.2mnt by 2018. This is a forecast supported by the monthly data to have been released for the French...
The France Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in France.
BMI's France Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in France.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for France to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the France metals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in France through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).
France's metals sector is set for an extended period of very modest but uninterrupted growth in terms of both output and consumption through to the end of our forecast period in 2018. As long as major producers in the sector hold back on investment, however, we will not see growth accelerating at a rate any faster than the broader European market. Within the metals industry, steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, aided by a turnaround in the fortunes of France's domestic autos industry in 2015. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto, the two largest producers in the country, are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment, with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production or consumption before the end of our forecast period to 2018.
BMI Industry View
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls
Demand: Muted Outlook For Infrastructure And Autos
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (France 2010-2018)
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (France 2005-2012)
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Surplus Set To Slim
Production: Reining In Growth
Consumption: Deceleration Ahead
No Respite From Chinese Exports Over Coming Months
Arbitrage Set To Grow Between East And West
Risks To Price Outlook
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, USD/tonne (average)
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities
Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers
Latest Financial Results
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Latest Financial Results
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
This report does not have a list of Companies Mentioned available
This report does not have a press release associated with it