Germany Petrochemicals Report Q1 2015
Representing a quarter of all European Union (EU) chemicals sales, the German market will be pivotal to the performance of the regional chemicals market. A slowdown in domestic demand will lead to a reduction in imports and as such European producers cannot bank on German demand to compensate for weaknesses elsewhere in the EU market.
The recovery in Germany's chemical industry faltered in Q314 as output fell 0.3% q-o-q and 3.4% y-o-y. However, the downturn was less acute in the petrochemicals and polymers segments. Petrochemicals and derivatives output rose 0.5% q-o-q but fell 2.7% y-o-y, while polymers production rose 0.5% q-o-q and fell 1.7% y-o-y. This is in line with BMI's expectation of an overall stagnation in petrochemicals and polymers, even as value added parts of the production chain will strengthen. Chemical sales on the domestic market dropped 1.0% q-o-q and 0.5% y-o-y, while foreign sales rose 1.5% q-o-q and 1.0% y-o-y.
The transition towards renewable resources will continue to exert a sizeable cost on energy-intensive German petrochemicals industries despite recent energy reforms. Attempts to shield the industry from these costs will delay the process of economic rebalancing towards a more consumption-based growth model, although German industrial competitiveness will ultimately suffer from higher energy costs. Added to this is the advent of TTIP, which will force German petrochemicals producers into greater competition with shale-based US rivals. German producers will need to rely on high value added specialisation in order to counter the onslaught of high volume basic chemicals output from the US.
The Ukraine crisis...
The Germany Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Germany Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Although the volatility seen in the domestic market had an beneficial impact on German petrochemicals industry in H214, but in the long-term we believe that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will determine the structure of the industry amidst growing fears that German producers will lose out.
BMI Industry View
Table: Germany's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Germany - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Western Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Risk Remains The Main Determinant Of Ratings
Germany: The Undisputed Leader
France: Vulnerable To A Future Downgrade
Table: Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Germany Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BASF)
BP Refining And Petrochemicals GmbH
Short-term Outlook: Competitiveness And Pricing
Looking Beyond Europe
Shale Gas Boom To Change European Petrochemicals Outlook-
Commonwealth Of Independent States' Capacity Growth
Global Petrochemicals Overview - Q213
Global Petrochemicals Overview
Change In Feedstock, But Not In Market Cycle
Polymers Heading On Different Trajectories
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Glossary of Petrochemicals Terms
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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