South Africa Agribusiness Report Q1 2015

Nov 3, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 98 pages - USD $1,295
Abstract Table of Contents Request Details Related
While we hold a positive view on the South African agricultural sector and see particular growth in the livestock sector, we are less optimistic on sustained growth in cereals production. This will be due to slower yield growth owing to lower input usage from a weaker currency, and limited developed in GMO seed plantings. The sugar sector also presents interesting growth opportunities, mainly thanks to renewed investment and improved technologies. The country's livestock sector will see greater growth over the coming years owing to lower grain prices and increasing demand from a more affluent population. We believe the country's main agribusiness companies, AFGRI , Rainbow Chicken and Astral Foods , will reap the benefit from lower global grain prices and therefore lower feed prices.

Key Forecasts
  • Sugar production growth 2012/13 to 2017/18: 31.2% to 2.65mn tonnes. This is based on our view that macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuels and increasing global sugar prices will have a positive impact on sugar production levels over the long term.
  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 15.9% to 2.0mn tonnes. As more South African consumers move towards diets containing higher levels of protein, poultry (predominantly chicken but also turkey and duck) is increasingly being viewed as a convenient, healthy and affordable source of nutrition.
  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 12.6% to 13.9mn tonnes. This relatively high growth rate reflects the bump 2012/13 crop. Growth will be constrained over the next few years as a result of slower yield growth.
  • Real GDP growth: 1.5% in 2014, down from 1.9% in 2013; predicted to average 2.6% over the five years to 2018.
  • Unemployment: 24.6% in 2014, down from 24.9% in 2013
  • Consumer price inflation: 6.3% in 2014, up from an average of 5.8% in 2013.
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.03% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease...

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.