Mexico Autos Report Q1 2015

Nov 11, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 69 pages - USD $1,295
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BMI forecasts 6.0% growth in vehicle sales in Mexico in 2014 on the back of a 6.4% increase in passenger car sales and 5.3% growth in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2015, we project vehicle sales accelerate to 8% spurred by an expansion of 6.5% and 10.8% in the passenger car and CV markets, respectively.

A rebound in private consumption in H214, has helped passenger car sales in Mexico increase 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first nine months of 2014 to 520,484 units. We expect this broader uptick in car purchases to continue through 2014 and into 2015 as retail spending recovers from the shock effect of earlier tax rises and as consumer confidence is boosted by growing employment.

Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 16.2% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2014, to 17,705 units after manufacturing and construction activity came in below expectations in H114, dragging on heavy truck demand. As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 10% decline in heavy truck demand in 2014. However, our Country Risk team expects manufacturing to improve over Q414 and during H115 due to strengthening US demand for imports. We believe this will help truck sales to recover in 2015 with sales growth to reach 11.0%.

In the Light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment (including SUVs), sales growth will receive a boost from renewed consumer spending in 2014 and 2015; although sales growth will still not reach our previous 2014 forecast. Consequently, we are revising down our 2014 LCV sales forecast from 7.2% to 6.0% but revising up our 2015 forecast from 9.1% to 11% growth.

Light vehicle production in Mexico increased 7.5% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, to 2,396,308 units. With this new data, we are revising our forecasts for passenger car production to 4.2%, down from 5.8% growth, and we are revising up our forecast for light commercial vehicles (LCV) to 12%, from 5.3%. Our forecast revisions are informed by our view that exports will continue to...

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.