Mexico Autos Report Q1 2015
A rebound in private consumption in H214, has helped passenger car sales in Mexico increase 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first nine months of 2014 to 520,484 units. We expect this broader uptick in car purchases to continue through 2014 and into 2015 as retail spending recovers from the shock effect of earlier tax rises and as consumer confidence is boosted by growing employment.
Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 16.2% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2014, to 17,705 units after manufacturing and construction activity came in below expectations in H114, dragging on heavy truck demand. As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 10% decline in heavy truck demand in 2014. However, our Country Risk team expects manufacturing to improve over Q414 and during H115 due to strengthening US demand for imports. We believe this will help truck sales to recover in 2015 with sales growth to reach 11.0%.
In the Light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment (including SUVs), sales growth will receive a boost from renewed consumer spending in 2014 and 2015; although sales growth will still not reach our previous 2014 forecast. Consequently, we are revising down our 2014 LCV sales forecast from 7.2% to 6.0% but revising up our 2015 forecast from 9.1% to 11% growth.
Light vehicle production in Mexico increased 7.5% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2014, to 2,396,308 units. With this new data, we are revising our forecasts for passenger car production to 4.2%, down from 5.8% growth, and we are revising up our forecast for light commercial vehicles (LCV) to 12%, from 5.3%. Our forecast revisions are informed by our view that exports will continue to...
BMI forecasts 6.0% growth in vehicle sales in Mexico in 2014 on the back of a 6.4% increase in passenger car sales and 5.3% growth in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2015, we project vehicle sales accelerate to 8% spurred by an expansion of 6.5% and 10.8% in the passenger car and CV markets, respectively.
BMI Industry View
Production, Sales and Trade
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
Passenger Cars - Forecast & Analysis
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
Table: Light Vehicle Sales By Brand
Table: Light Vehicle Production By Brand
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2012-2018)
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings
Industry Trend Analysis
Global Industry Overview
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
European Growth Gathers Momentum
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
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