Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q4 2014
BMI expects Kazakhstan's defence spending to have reached USD2.8bn by the end of 2014 and USD3.2bn by the end of 2015. While Kazakhstan's domestic defence industries remain largely dependent on the old Soviet defence industrial complex, Kazakhstan has seen some interesting developments during the first half of 2014. Several contracts have been signed with western defence companies and with companies from emerging economies. BMI expects these contracts to add some new technologies to Kazakhstan's industrial base in the coming years notably in the aerospace sector.
In Q414 BMI observes that the scores attributed for security risk have lowered over the last five years, indicating higher risk. Overall BMI thinks the risk of interstate conflict remains low. That said, trans-border terrorism is a mounting challenge in the region. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are least at risk, while Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are most susceptible. BMI expects this challenge may increase if instability emerges in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2015. BMI also notes that a balance needs to be struck between fighting terrorism and allowing opposition groups' room for expression.
Finally, BMI wishes to highlight the internal clan rivalries coming to the fore in Uzbek politics as a result of the upcoming parliamentary and regional elections at the end of 2014 and the...
The Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Kazakhstani, Uzbekistani, Turkmen, Kyrgyzstani, Tajikistani defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting, along with potential risks in the coming year.
At present, Kazakhstan and the other four Central Asia countries, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have limited defence budgets, yet numerous requirements. While BMI expects these budgets to increase incrementally over the coming years, BMI also expects the budgetary and underdevelopment challenges to limit those increases considerably. These countries face numerous internal and external security challenges. Border disputes, criminality, domestic infighting and domestic and transnational terrorism are just a few of those challenges.
BMI Industry View
Kazakhstan And Central Asia Defence SWOT
Kazakhstan And Central Asia Security SWOT
Table: Defence Expenditure
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Defence Trade Balance (US$mn)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Kazakhstan and Central Asia Risk Rewards
Defence Market Overview
Domestic Defence Industries
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
GE International Operations
Global Industry Overview
Global Political Outlook
Industry Forecast Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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