Japan Tourism Report Q1 2015
More than three years after the earthquake and tsunami that caused widespread damage to a 400km stretch of coastline, resulting in nearly 19,000 deaths and the destruction or damage of a million buildings, Japan's reconstruction efforts are ongoing. Over 200,000 people remain displaced, and much of the affected region's infrastructure remains in bad condition. The earthquake and tsunami had a substantial impact on tourism, both in terms of arrivals which saw a sharp decline in 2011, and in terms of internal domestic travel, with tourism facilities destroyed and transport infrastructure affected. However, despite ongoing safety concerns surrounding the nuclear site in Fukushima, tourism arrivals recovered quickly due to Japan's already very well-established tourism base.
With a wide range of cultural and natural attractions, as well as excellent regional and global travel connections, Japan is a popular tourist destination in the Asia Pacific region. After the fall in arrivals in 2011, the market rebounded with growth of 34.6% in 2012 followed. While are not forecasting such substantial growth rates moving forward, we do expect to see very healthy increases in the number of tourists to Japan. Arrivals are expected to reach 10.2mn in 2015, and increase further to 12mn in 2018.
Both the inbound and outbound tourism markets are dominated by Japan's Asia Pacific neighbours; South Korea, China and Taiwan are the top three markets for arrivals and also make up three of the top four destinations for outbound travellers (with the USA claiming top spot)....
The Japan Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Japan Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Japanese tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Japan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Japanese tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Japanese tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Japan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMIs Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
With one of the most highly developed transport networks in the world and an active hotel and acco mmodation sector, Japan is well- placed to take advantage of the growth we expect to see in terms of inbound arrivals to the country. At the same time, domestic economic growth is lending strength to the outbound travel market, and while growth will be more subdued the potential market remains substantial.
BMI Industry View
Table: Inbound Tourism (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Japan Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000, 2011-2018
Table: Outbound Tourism (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Japan Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Destinations By Departures, '000, 2011-2018
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Japan 2011-2018)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Japan 2011-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Security Risk Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Top 10 Global Hotels Groups Present In Japan
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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