Iran Defence & Security Report Q1 2015
Iran's annual defence budget is modest in comparison with that of its neighbours Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Details of the defence budget are only summarily divulged to public scrutiny if at all. For 2015, our forecasts estimate defence spending to reach USD11.6bn, which fades in comparison with the USD59.5bn forecast for Saudi Arabia. We think that despite the severe economic conditions, Iran will attempt to maintain its defence spending constant at 2.2-2.3% of GDP over the coming years in view of its regional and international security environment.
As reflected in our security risk ratings, we think that the rise of the IS has left Iran more vulnerable to international terrorism. On this issue, Iran is fighting on the same side as the West whereas Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been attributed blame for the rise of the group. We are inclined to think that while we may see short-term non-admitted tactical cooperation between Iran and the West in order to fight the IS, long-term cooperation is unlikely.
The progress made to date with regards to international relations between Iran and the US is noteworthy. However, in Q314, Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) slowed. Our view is that if the parties fail to reach agreement before the November 24 deadline, extending the interim agreement for a second time rather than allowing the talks to collapse is a preferential outcome. We think that diplomatic efforts can freeze the...
The Iran Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iranian defence and security industry.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting, along with potential risks in the coming year.
The significant 17.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in defence spending for 2015 is due to an increase in the value of the local currency. A second extension to the interim deal on the nuclear program in November 2013 seems the best outcome if the parties fail to reach a deal within the context of the P5+1 talks by the November 24 deadline. A short term non-admitted tactical cooperation to combat the Islamic State (IS) between Iran and the West is possible, long-term cooperation is questionable.
BMI Industry View
Iran Security SWOT
Iran Defence & Security SWOT
Table: Defence Expenditure (2011_2018)
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Iran 2004-2011)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Iran 2011-2018)
Defence Sector Production
Table: Iran - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Middle East And Africa Security Risk Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Iran Security Risk Ratings
Iran Defence Market Overview
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Industry Trends & Developments
Chemical, Biological & Nuclear
Arms Trade Overview
Iran Security Overview
China Great Wall Industry Corporation
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
Aerospace Industries Organization
Ammunition & Metallurgy Industries Group
Defence Industries Organization
Iran Electronics Industries
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
Political Risk Analysis
Industry Forecast Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Table: Indicators And Weighting
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