Croatia Tourism Report Q1 2015
The growth in arrivals that we expect to drive investment in the sector is likely to be lower than originally anticipated due to a slight slowdown in growth in the EU, which provides the bulk of arrivals to Croatia. As such, growth is dependent on the continued health of those economies, Germany in particular as the largest contributor of tourists to Croatia. Inbound travel will increase by about 1mn journeys between 2015 and 2018, reaching 12.8mn at the end of our forecast period. Outbound tourism will also grow but will be held back by sluggish domestic economic growth. Nevertheless we expect to see outbound travel increase from 2.1mn journeys in 2015 to 2.4mn journeys in 2018.
The country's transport infrastructure is in serious need of modernisation but a lack of government funding is holding back investment, EU structural adjustment funds are now available to Croatia, however, and this will go some way to encouraging the flow of tourists by increasing travel capacity, including the expansion of Zagreb airport which is benefitting from European funding. Challenges remain such as the lack of luxury accommodation and an overreliance on the summer season and European source markets. But these challenges also provide opportunities for investment, especially as the government looks to open up the tourism markets to greater investment from abroad.
Key Recent Developments
The Croatia Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
- Swiss company TFI Holding...
BMI's Croatia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Croatian tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Croatian tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Croatian tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Croatia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMIs Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Despite revising our growth forecasts for the Croatian tourism market downwards since 2014, we still expect to see the industry grow healthily over the coming y ears. Accession to the EU, combined with a general recovery in the economies of many European source markets, will continue to boost arrivals to the country by around a million over the forecast period and this will lead to positive developments across all other key market indicators with the exception of outbound tourism, which remains at risk of stagnation due to a relatively flat domestic economy.
BMI Industry View
Table: Inbound Tourism (Croatia 2011-2018)
Table: Croatia Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000, 2011-2018
Table: Outbound Tourism (Croatia 2011-2018)
Table: Croatia Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Destinations By Departures, '000, 2011-2018
Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Croatia 2011-2018)
Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Croatia 2011-2018)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Croatia 2011-2018)
Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Croatia 2011-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Security Risk Rating
Table: Europe Security Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Global Hotel Group Presence In Croatia
Global Industry Overview
Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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