Bulgaria Defence & Security Report Q1 2015
On average, the Bulgarian armed forces have maintained a numerical size of 78,200 personnel between 2001 and 2011 across all three services. The size of the armed forces has declined from circa 111,300 in 2001 to 47,300 in 2011. The size of the armed forces is expected to contract still further with up to 1,300 civilian and military personnel being laid off by the end of 2014.
On 18th August 2014, Bulgarian defence minister Yelizar Shalamanov announced a USD680mn programme to modernise the equipment used by the country's armed forces. Shalamanov reiterated his commitment to procuring a new Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) for the Bulgarian Air Force (see below). In addition, the minister stated that a new conventional hunter-killer (SSK) submarine will be procured for the navy along with several new surface vessels for the force.
No details were given by Shalamanov regarding how many MRCA will be procured, which aircraft will be procured, the likely budget for the acquisition, the industrial arrangements of such an acquisition (whether the aircraft will be purchased off-the-shelf or be produced locally under licence) and when deliveries of the new aircraft will commence and when they will conclude. Similar information was not forthcoming regarding the navy's SSK requirement or the new surface vessels that it intends to procure. Until such details are articulated, such potential purchases can be regarded only as an armed forces 'wish list' rather than a concrete plan for a modernisation of...
The Bulgaria Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
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Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
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Security Risk Analysis
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Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting, along with potential risks in the coming year.
On 18th August 2014 it was reported that Bulgaria's main political parties had agreed to increase the share of the country's defence budget which is spent on equipment by up to 20 percent. Bulgaria has come under considerable pressure in recent years to enhance and modernise its materiel. In particular, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is encouraging Bulgaria to invest in advanced equipment which can correspondingly reduce the manpower size of the country's armed forces.
BMI Industry View
Bulgaria Defence SWOT
Bulgaria Security SWOT
Table: Defence Expenditure (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Bulgaria 2004-2011)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services (Bulgaria 2011-2018)
Table: Bulgaria GDP Table
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Bulgaria Security Risk Ratings
Defence Market Overview
Table: Key Players In Bulgaria's Defence Sector, 2014
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
Europe Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
Political Risk Analysis
Industry Forecast Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Table: Indicators And Weighting
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