Australia Defence & Security Report Q4 2014
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has estimated that the country's involvement in Iraq is likely to cost half a billion dollars each year, and moreover that some personnel have already left for the Middle East. Australian special forces deployed to the region will be armed, but based in Iraqi and Kurdish military headquarters in an advisory role rather than directly fighting in the field against Isis.
Nonetheless, we expect the intervention to increase demand for arms acquisitions and heighten the urgency with which the Australian Defence Force (ADF) renews itself. After ongoing operational and logistical investment in operations in Afghanistan, the Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste, the ADF is now focused on re-grouping and optimising its resources to support its strategic goals for the revised 2030 strategy.
A Defence White Paper published in late 2013 outlined the importance of the ADF to the overall success of the Australian economy and nation. We have since witnessed a renewed sense of importance attributed to the ADF, and some recent organisational changes, including a change in the ADF chief in June 2014. For these reasons, and to meet the demand created by the country's involvement in a new conflict, we expect Australia's defence expenditure to increase throughout the projection period with the total expenditure in AUD increasing at an average annual rate of 6%...
The Australia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Australia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Australian defence and security industry.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting, along with potential risks in the coming year.
While there are limited major security threats to Australia over the short to medium term, BMI expects it to continue to play a prominent role in international peacekeeping military campaigns. This policy is currently being played out in Australia's recent military response to the threat posed by the Islamic terrorist group ISIS in the Middle East. We expect such strategic military objectives to continue to fuel arms procurements, particularly from its closest trade partner the US, and drive an increase in overall defence expenditure for the remainder of our forecast period.
BMI Industry View
Australia Security SWOT
Australia Defence SWOT
Australia Industry Forecast
Table: Defence Expenditure (Australia 2011-2018)
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Australia 2011-2018)
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Australia 2004-2011)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Australia 2011-2018)
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Australia 2011-2018)
Table: Defence Imports (Australia 2011-2018)
Table: Defence Exports (Australia 2011-2018)
Pull-Back In Mining Investment Still The Biggest Drag
Other Sectors Ill-Placed To Drive Growth As Reform Drive Stalls
Fiscal Restraint Negative For Near-Term Growth
Table: Economic Activity (Australia 2010-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Developed States Security Risk Ratings
Table: Developed States Regional Security Ratings
Table: Developed States State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Australia Security Risk Ratings
Australia Defence Market Overview
Australia Security Overview
BAE Systems Australia
Europe Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
Global Political Outlook
Industry Forecast Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Table: Indicators And Weighting
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