Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q4 2014

Oct 13, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 88 pages - USD $1,295
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We continue to favour the Tanzanian sugar and coffee industries over the medium term owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter.

Key Forecasts
  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 11.3 % to 345,000 tonnes. Increased investment in the sector as well as booming consumption on the back of growing confectionery and soft drinks demand will support growth.
  • Corn consumption growth to 2018: 6.5% to 5.3mn tonnes. A combination of lower average prices and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.
  • Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 14.4 % to 1.4mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees, and from incentives for small producers.
  • 2014 real GDP growth: 6.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), stable compared with the 2013 level; forecast to average 7.2% over 2013-2018.
  • Consumer price inflation: 7.3% average in 2014 (down from 7.9% average in 2013).
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 19.9% y-o-y decrease to USD1.7bn in 2014, forecast to average growth of 4.9% per year between 2014/15 and 2017/18.
Industry Developments

We forecast corn production in Tanzania to come in at 4.5mn tonnes in 2014/15, a decline of 4.3% y-o-y. Lower yields owing to unfavourable weather and lower input use has damaged the country's grain crop over the last couple of years.

Similar to many other Sub-Saharan African nations, we do not expect Tanzania to significantly improve its grains output via improved yield growth. Furthermore, lower average corn prices relative to the last few years will discourage significant plantings growth.

In contrast to the general optimism surrounding the...

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits
  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Tanzania.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.


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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.