Malaysia Metals Report Q4 2014
The Q4 2014 Malaysia Metals Report analyses developments with the country's steel and tin sectors as well as the strategies being undertaken by companies as they face into an increasingly challenging operating environment. H2 2014 will see Malaysia's status as a leading steel producer come under threat as output growth is set to fall from 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013, to 5.4% this year. The increasing threat posed by Chinese exporters, who have been able to lower prices on a number of products both on the domestic market as well as internationally, is starting to cut into the operating margins of Malaysian producers, many of whom are now expect to begin limiting their capacity utilisation. A more conservative operating will see the country's total steel production growth begin to decelerate over the next few years, a trend that will see Malaysia surrender its status as the fastest growing steel sector in the Asia-Pacific region.
In contrast, Malaysian tin producers are adopting an increasingly bullish outlook. In terms of tin production, we expect production levels to return to growth following two years of contracting output, with growth set to come in at 1.8% over the year.
Nevertheless, both industries face a number of downside risks over the coming quarters. With the Chinese economy set to cool in 2014 (we forecast GDP growth of 6.7%), Malaysian metals producers will be looking to the domestic market to drive demand, rather than imports, with consumption of both steel and tin. We note that the success of Malaysia's electronics industry is reported to be driving an increase in demand for tin in particular with the industry having attracted achieved USD1.5bn in foreign...
The Malaysia Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Malaysia.
BMI's Malaysia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Malaysia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Malaysia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Malaysia metals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Malaysia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).
Malaysia's has one of the most developed metals industries in the Asia-Pacific region, however, the industry has found itself increasingly challenged by the pricing strategies of other regional producers which have increasingly started to affect companies profit margins.
BMI Industry View
Steel: Domestic Demand Key To High Output
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Malaysia 2010-2018)
Tin: Production Recovering, But Challenges Remain
Table: Refined Tin Production, Consumption & Balance (Malaysia 2010-2018)
Table: Import Duties - Steel Wire Rods
Table: Political Overview
Monthly Metals Update
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Steel Price Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Table: Malaysia - Financial Data Of Key Listed Companies
Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad
Table: MSC - Key Financial Data
This report does not have a list of Companies Mentioned available
This report does not have a press release associated with it