A key driver behind Uganda's continued desire to maintain its arms capability is its continued military involvement in South Sudan. Following the breaking out of fighting in Juba in December 2013, Uganda intervened, deploying two battalions into the country. Uganda Peoples' Defence Force (UPDF) spokesperson has stated that the army's mission is primarily to protect key installations and to ease safe evacuation of the Uganda nationals in South Sudan. However, BMI believes that Uganda's decision to deploy its military in South Sudan is less a benevolent act and more an assertion of its increasing regional dominance.
Uganda has assumed the role of a regional military power: its forces participate in peacekeeping operations and military interventions in Somalia, Sudan and elsewhere. Uganda's military capabilities play an important part in addressing Kampala's strategic interests. We expect that Uganda's involvement in these conflicts will drive the gradual expansion of the country's nascent defence sector, which is currently restricted to one ammunition company.
That said, Uganda has long relied on weapons imports from both Russia and China to fuel a regional strategy based on an enduring ability to intervene militarily in its neighbours' disputes and to sometimes act as a regional arbiter. We expect this reliance to continue: Russia offers a cheaper alternative to...
The Uganda Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Uganda Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Ugandan defence and security industry.Key Benefits
CoverageGlobal and Regional Political Outlooks
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Ugandan defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.
In recent years, the size of the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF) and the country's arms procurement have grown significantly, a trend BMI expect to continue over the forecast period. This primarily reflects the growing role of the army in Uganda's domestic political landscape, which we attribute to Museveni's increasing domestic political isolation, as well as the need to maintain the country's status as a strategic ally of the US. As such, we expect imports to Uganda, which lacks its own military-industrial base, from Russia and China in particular, to steadily increase for the foreseeable future.