Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2014

Oct 3, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 100 pages - USD $1,295
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The livestock segment is in the middle of a mini crisis as pork producers suffer the effects of restrictions on their produce imposed by Russia, China and several other important markets from the b eginning of 2014. Poultry, beef and dairy producers are feeling the effects , as a separate Russian ban on EU food imports will hit Poland harder than any other member state. Consumers will benefit in the short term from cheaper prices as producers struggle to find new markets. Winter crops are expected to have enjoyed a strong harvest , with wheat coming close to equalling the previous year's outstanding figure and barley rebounding well. We are reasonably optimistic about the prospects of Poland's sugar industry in adjusting to the phasing out of the quota regime by 2017 due to its cheap production costs relative to other EU producers.

Key Forecasts
  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 3 .8% to 9.8mn tonnes. Expansion in output will be relatively sluggish, though this growth comes from a high base. Low global prices will limit export potential.
  • Pork consumption growth to 2018: 5.2% to 1.7mn tonnes. Demand will have a brief spurt in the short term due to a supply glut before returning to marginal year-on-year (y-o-y) declines in the later years of the forecast period.
  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2.8% (up from an estimated 1.6% in 2013; predicted to average 3.1% over the period 2013-2018).
  • Consumer price inflation: 0.4% y-o-y on average for 2014 (down from the 1.1% y-o-y estimated for 2013).
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 6.5% y-o-y decrease to US D 12.27bn in 2014, forecast to increase 0.9% annually on average between 2014 and 2018.
Industry Developments

We expect Poland to enjoy another strong wheat harvest in 2014/15, with production forecast at 9.9mn tonnes. Although there were some concerns given that cold, wet conditions delayed harvesting in...

The Poland Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Poland Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits
  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Poland.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Poland Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.


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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.