United Kingdom Agribusiness Report Q4 2014

Sep 24, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 110 pages - USD $1,295
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We favour the grain, livestock and dairy industries in the UK because of good export opportunities and a strong domestic market. The country became a net importer of wheat in 2012/13 and 2013/14, but this will not be the case again in 2014/15. We see limited growth for the sugar industry, as we believe that the abolishment of the EU production quota in 2017 will see companies base their operations in higher- yielding areas.

Key Forecasts
  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 19.5% to 15.9mn tonnes. We expect the UK wheat industry to face challenges in the near term owing to increased competition for exports from the Black Sea region, decreasing direct payments to farmers as a result of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, and poor economies of scale on the back of a shift of EU ethanol policy towards non-food biofuels.
  • Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 5.2% to 1.9mn tonnes. Poultry meat is often viewed as a cheaper and healthier alternative to beef, for which consumption per capita is largely saturated.
  • Milk production growth to 2017/18: 7.7% to 14.9mn tonnes. We expect production to post moderate growth ahead of the 2015 quota repeal; however, we note that EU CAP reforms could make UK farmers less competitive.
  • Real GDP growth: 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (from 1.7% y-o-y in 2013).
  • Consumer price inflation: 2.0% y-o-y in 2014 (down from 2.6% y-o-y in 2013).
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.6% y-o-y decline, to USD26.1bn in 2013/14, forecast to rise 1.7% on average annually between 2014/15 and 2017/18.
Industry Outlook

The UK will record a strong wheat harvest in 2014/15 of 14.3mn tonnes, up 20.0% year-on-year (y-o-y). This is mainly on the back of favourable weather leading to strong yields and a good harvest season. While quality issues are a big concern for EU-28 wheat production, we believe that the UK will not be affected as much as...

The United Kingdom Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United Kingdom Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits
  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in United Kingdom.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The United Kingdom Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.


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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.