France Oil & Gas Report Q4 2014
The France Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for France including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
- The French cabinet approved a long-delayed energy bill in July 2014 that will nuclear power and encourage energy efficiency. On the back of the bill, as well as an unimpressive economic outlook, we have slightly downgraded our already bearish oil consumption figures.
- The energy bill is expected to become law in early-2015 and the legislation poses some upside risk to our gas consumption outlook. Natural gas could become an attractive option as a backup to intermittent renewables.
- France is thought to have significant unconventional deposits of gas. Although the EIA downwardly revised its estimate of the country's technically recoverable shale gas resources in 2013, at 3.9trn cubic metres (tcm) the resources potential is still the second largest in Europe.
- In February 2014,...
BMI's France Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the French oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for France to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the French oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the French oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in France.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs
Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Low-levels of upstream and investment and a high import burden will persist in France absent a reversal of a government opposition to shale gas exploration. Some senior officials and powerful business interests have expressed support for shale gas exploration, but the issues remains politically contentious. In the downstream sector, further refinery closures are likely given market conditions that will see margins remain weak over the course of our forecast period.
BMI Industry View
Oil And Gas Reserves
Table: France Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
Table: France Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data And Forecasts, 2018-2023
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: France Crude And Liquids Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
Table: France Crude And Liquids Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: France Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
Table: France Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Table: France Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: France Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Upstream: US Catches Up To Canada
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Western Europe Upstream Languishes Without Shale Outlook
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
France - Risk/Reward Ratings
France Upstream Rating - Overview
France Upstream Rating - Rewards
France Upstream Rating - Risks
France Downstream Rating - Overview
France Downstream Rating - Rewards
France Downstream Rating - Risks
France Energy Market Overview
International Energy Relations
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Table: Refineries In France
Table: LNG Terminals In France
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - France Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Royal Dutch Shell
North America & Western Europe Overview
Muted Consumption Growth
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
Global Industry Overview
Global Energy Market Overview
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
Developed Europe - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
France - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: France Refined Petroleum Production, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
Table: France Refined Petroleum Production, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
Table: France Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
Table: France Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
Table: France Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
Table: France Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
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