Germany Agribusiness Report Q4 2014
Key Changes To Forecasts
- Milk production growth to 2018: 5.8% to 32.1mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.
- Pork consumption growth to 2018: stagnant at 4.4mn tonnes. Although we expect lower prices to boost growth in 2014 and 2015, demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no sustained let-up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.
- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 14.4% to 25.6mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 1.5%; up from 0.4% in 2013 and forecast to average 1.5% from 2014 until 2018.
- Consumer price inflation: 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2013.
- BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value to shrink by 3.4% to USD34.22bn in 2014. Expected to shrink by 1.2% to USD35.0bn from 2013 to 2018.
The Germany Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Germany.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.
Methodology & Sourcing
The Germany Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
German p ork producers are facing a n export crisis after Russia imposed an embargo on EU food products. Russia was a key export market , and in the short term it will be difficult to find sufficient alternative markets. Looking further ahead , the picture is more positive , as German meat producers have already increased trade with East Asian countries. Grain producers are enjoying another strong harvest in 2014/15, although there are some concerns over wheat quality. This will determine Germany's success in gaining ground with North African countries at the expense of France. The situation remains very uncertain for sugar production , with major firms struggling and biofuel demand for beet at a low ebb. The dairy segment looks the strongest in the agribusiness complex , with export opportunities driving production increases for milk and processed dairy products.
BMI Industry View
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: New Payment Schemes Under CAP Reforms
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2013-2018)
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Germany 2008-2013)
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Europe Machinery Outlook
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
Europe GM Outlook
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Germany 2005-2014)
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) (Germany 2005-2014)
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (loccurbn) (Germany 2005-2014)
Table: Germany - Key Agribusiness Players
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Germany's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Germany's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Germany's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
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