Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2014
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: BYR8,927bn in 2013 (USD1.00bn) to BYR11,039bn (USD1.05mn) in 2014; +23.7% in local currency terms and +4.9% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: BYR28,966bn (USD3.24bn) in 2013 to BYR35,066bn (USD3.34bn) in 2014; +21.4% in local currency terms and +2.9% in US dollar terms.
In our latest Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) matrix, Belarus is 17th out of the 20 countries surveyed in the Central and Easter Europe (CEE) region, having considerably improved since the start of the year. However, although its Rewards variables (and in particular its Industry Rewards) are favourable, Belarus will continue to represent a very risky market on account of unresolved issues, such as the lack of patent protection, corruption and political tensions.
Key Trends And Developments
The Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
- Belarus's health ministry has proposed introducing uniform margins on drugs in pharmacies, reports Interfax. Drug suppliers will have to follow a price range set in US dollar terms. Health Minister Vasily Zharkov stated that the proposed bill will introduce the concept of a selling price i.e. the price that will be stated by the manufacturer during the state registration of medicines.
- Russia's preferential treatment rules in government...
BMI's Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Belarusian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Belarus to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belarusian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Belarusian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Belarus.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)
Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)
Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)
Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)
OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)
Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)
Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Belarusian economy is set to suffer a prolonged period of economic instability as a result of a decline in global potash prices and an escalating trade war with Russia. If Russo-Belarusian relations cannot be patched up, state revenues are set to decline considerably, the net exports deficit will widen significantly and real GDP growth will decline. There are downside risks to our 2014 forecast, owing to the threat of further currency depreciation, a collapse in exports and absolute erosion of consumer purchasing power. With the balance of the Belarusian economy once more on knife's edge, Belarus will present little reward for high risk for most pharmaceutical companies in the region.
Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT
Belarus Political SWOT
Belarus Economic SWOT
Belarus Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: CEE Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
Belarus - Market Summary
Recent Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Rights
Pricing And Reimbursement
Healthcare Sector Reforms
Research And Development
Industry Forecast Scenario
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
Table: Belarus Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
Table: Belarus Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Belarus Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2017
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Belarus Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn), 2009-2017
Table: Belarus Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (BYRmn), 2009-2017
Other Healthcare Data
Key Risks To BMI-s Forecasts
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail
Table: Belarus- Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (-000)
Table: Belarus- Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Belarus- Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Belarus- Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
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