Brazil Mining Report Q4 2014
We expect solid mine output growth in Brazil, particularly for iron ore, despite weak prices. While we forecast iron ore prices will average lower year-on-year over the coming years, from USD100/tonne in 2015 to USD85/tonne in 2018, Brazilian firm Vale will continue to take advantage of its low unit costs and seek to increase its global market share. Vale has cited unit costs in the USD30-50 per tonne range in the past, though reported Q214 costs as low as USD22/tonne. We therefore expect iron ore mine output will grow at an average annual pace of 4.3% to 2018. Shipping times and costs to China are longer and higher compared with Australian iron ore producers though, which may lead to Australian producers capturing a greater share of the Chinese iron ore import market.
We expect Brazil's total mining industry value to see only modest growth averaging 1.2% per annum to 2018 despite solid growth in iron ore output. Ultimately, our bearish iron ore price outlook underpins our modest industry value forecast as iron ore makes up around 85% of the country's total mining export value. We believe Chinese economic growth will trend lower as steel-intensive fixed asset investment shifts to more domestic consumption, leading to lower demand growth from Vale and other iron ore producers, and further exacerbating the global glut of the steelmaking ingredient.
We maintain the country will see positive base and precious metals production growth despite a more...
The Brazil Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Brazil Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Brazil.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
- Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
- Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Brazil's mining industry value will see slower average growth to 2018 compared with previous years on account of subdued mineral prices . Nevertheless, mine production will still see growth as both domestic and foreign miners continue to exploit the country's significant reserves of both industrial and precious metals.
BMI Industry View
Bauxite: Growth Despite Market Weakness
Foreign Firms To Dominate Production
Risks To Outlook
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018)
Gold: Brazil To See Small Gains
Table: Select Greenfield Gold Projects
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018)
Iron Ore: Growth To Continue Despite Weakening Chinese Demand
Vale To Dominate Sector
Risks To Outlook
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018)
Nickel: Growth To Continue
Table: Brazil - Key Nickel Projects
Indonesian Policy To Encourage Production
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018)
Tin: Brazil To Capture Larger Share Of Market
Risks To Outlook
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Brazil 2010-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Colombia & Chile Remain At The Top
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
Mexico & Peru See Improvement, While Brazil Falls Back
Weak Prices & Poor Operating Environments Hold Others Back
Table: Brazil - Mining Production & Growth
Sector To Remain Promising, But Regulatory Hindrances To Remain
Potential Royalties Would Present Challenges, Though Not Game Changer
Licensing & Permitting Challenges To Remain
Corruption To Persist
Table: Brazil - Political Overview
Table: Regional Regulatory Ratings
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Financial Data For Key Firms Listed In Brazil
Foreign Firms Look Beyond Iron Ore
Golden Opportunities Tarnished By Lower Prices
Recent Financial Data
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
Recent Financial Performance
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates
Global Industry Overview
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
Cause For Optimism
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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