Mexico Retail Report Q4 2014
BMI forecasts total household spending will rise from USD323bn in 2015 to USD 426bn in 2018. In addition, the middle class continues to grow with 23% of households estimated to earn above USD25,000 in 2015. By 2018, this figure is expected to grow to 34%. Retail sales will be driven by the growth of wealth and rise in consumer spending power. Furthermore, Mexico's strong demographic forecast will aid this trend. BMI projects that the labour force will continue to grow into the end of BMI's forecast period in 2018, averaging about 1.4% growth. The unemployment rate will continue to fall, dropping to 3.5% in 2016 but rising slightly to 4% by 2018.
Mexico's retail landscape is a mix of traditional village shops and modern, organized retail department stores. Currently, 2.3 million small vendors supply Mexico's traditional street markets where sellers vend everything from designer jeans to cell phones to kitchen appliances. These markets offer merchandise at a lower price point without tax, but can also offer used or contraband goods. The National Chamber of Cargo Trucking estimates that 8% of goods sold in the informal market are stolen from trucks. Mexico's statistics center reports that 60% of the population participated in the informal market, buying or selling merchandise. However, with the growth of net household income, forecasted at USD21,795 in 2015 and expected to rise to USD27,890 in 2018, more consumers will have the financial means to participate in the formal retail market and move...
The Mexico Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Mexico Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Mexican retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Mexico through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMIs key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);
Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (000, % change)
Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (000, % population); Rural Population (000, % population).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMIs Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.
The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
Mexico's retail market continues to attract international retailers and investment due to its growing middle class and growth opportunities. Positive demographic trends such as the growth of the key young adult population bracket as well as the rise of household spending will further drive the growth of the retail sector. However the rise of informal vendors in the country is expected to continue chipping away at the overall growth of the retail market.
BMI Industry View
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
Table: Retail Sector Spending As A % Of GDP, 2011-2018
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
Retail Sector Forecast
Food And Drink
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
Personal Care And Effects
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
Table: Population: 21-Plus yrs, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings
Pharmacies And Drug Stores
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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