Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2014
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: From EUR276mn (USD364mn) in 2013 to EUR289mn (USD387mn) in 2014; +4.7% in local currency terms and +6.2% in US dollar terms. The local currency growth forecast of 4.7% in 2014 is a decrease after 2013's 5.3%, with the forecast continuing on a long-term decline after 2014. The 2014 local currency forecast also represents a marked decline from the growth of 9.2% in 2012 due to new market data and macroeconomic expectations.
- Healthcare: EUR1.08bn (USD1.42bn) in 2013 to EUR1.13bn (USD1.51bn) in 2014; +4.2% in local currency terms and +5.8% in US dollar terms .
Estonia scores 52.1 out of 100 in BMI's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) tool, remaining in 10 th position out of the 20 key markets covered in Central and Eastern Europe. Estonia's Industry Rewards score is still the weakest part of its pharmaceutical profile, at now 12.8 after 11.6 in Q314, significantly below the regional average of 18.8. That it scores as high as it does is mainly due to above-average scores in the urban/rural split and pensionable population. As the population ages, the dominant types of disease will...
The Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Estonia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Estonian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Estonia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)
Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)
Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)
Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)
OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)
Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)
Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Against a backdrop of GDP contraction in Q114, Estonian pharmacy sales posted considerable growth, driven by demand for over-the-counter medicines and an uptick in prescriptions written. Private consumer spending will continue to bolster pharmaceutical sales in 2014 as wage growth continues. Despite this data, Estonia will continue to remain a marginal market in the Central and Eastern European region. Whether or not a fiscally conservative policy in healthcare spending can survive Estonia's ageing population and the subsequent growth in demand for medicine is highly dependent on broader macroeconomic trends. Nevertheless, there are also potential rewards in the market. Any growth in demand for medicine is highly dependent on unemployment levels and the raising of premiums by the HIF.
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Leading ATC Groups By Pharmaceutical Sales, 2004-2010 (%)
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2010-2018)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Estonia 2012-2018)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Estonia 2012-2018)
Other Healthcare Data
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Table: Estonia - GDP By Expenditure
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Estonia Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2005-2010
Table: Healthcare Expenditure By The HIF, 2006-2011 (EURmn)
Table: Reimbursement Spending By Key Therapeutic Area, 2010-2011 (EURmn)
Table: Medicinal Products Reimbursed For Insured Patients, 2009-2011 (EURmn)
Table: Members Of EBio, 2011
Table: Clinical Trials, 1991-2011
Intellectual Property Regime
Table: Key Health Insurance Indicators, 2007-2011
Table: Expenditure By Reimbursed Prescription Medicinal Products, 2005-2010 (EEK '000)
Table: Members Of The Association Of International Pharmaceutical Manufacturers In Estonia (APME)
Foreign Pharmaceutical Players
Table: Pharmacies And Pharmacy Market Ratios, 2004-2009
Merck & Co
Grindeks (incorporating Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
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