United States Metals Report Q4 2014
Our expectation for accelerating real GDP growth in the coming quarters underpins our view that the metal sector will see modest growth over a multi-year period. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2015, up from 2.1% in 2014. Moreover, we forecast average annual growth of 2.4% in 2016-2018. Gains in non-residential construction, automotive production, and oil and gas investment, should lead to steady, albeit low, demand growth for refined metal products. However, elevated inventories, weak foreign demand, and increased competition from cheap imports will limit production growth.
We expect the US to continue importing significant quantities of refined metals, such as aluminium, copper, and zinc, as well as bauxite ore. Though the US exports some metal, we expect that the bulk of metals sector production will be used for domestic consumption rather than for export abroad. We also note that domestic US companies will dominate production of their respective metals, although laws on foreign ownership of US based companies enables some foreign companies to operate as well, with various foreign steel firms maintaining US operations.
Metal-Intensive Industry To Support Demand
We expect metals consumption in the US will be driven largely by growth in the construction, auto, and manufacturing sectors. We forecast the construction industry will grow 0.9% on average per annum to 2018, with the auto industry expanding 2.9% on average. Non-residential construction will increase demand for heavy machinery, as well as refined metal inputs. Moreover, we expect the multi-year housing recovery to...
The United States Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in United States.
BMI's United States Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in United States.
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Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2017 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).
The US metals sector will see modest growth over the next several years . Positive tailwinds from accelerating economic expansion will drive metal production and consumption. Still, total production and consumption levels will remain below pre-crisis levels through 2018.
BMI Industry View
Steel: Modest Outlook Ahead
Capacity Utilisation Indicates Continued, Though Modest, Recovery
Steel-Intensive Sectors To Boost Construction
Cheap Imports Remain Risk
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (United States 2010-2018)
Aluminium: Production And Consumption Trends To Diverge
Consumption To Gain From Stronger Economic Growth
Production To See Stagnant Growth
Table: US - Aluminium Consumption, Production & Balance (kt)
Copper: Muted Recovery
Housing & Manufacturing Bolster Demand
Production To Consumption Growth
Table: US - Refined Copper Production & Consumption (kt)
Zinc: Production And Consumption Growth Subdued
Steel Production To Drive Zinc Consumption
Total Production To Lag Consumption
Table: US - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
Table: US Political Overview
Steel Price Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Global Steel Glut To Persist
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
Excessive Chinese Exports
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
Risks To Price Outlook
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
Monthly Metals Update
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: US - Financial Data For Key Listed Metals Firms, FY 2013
Steel Sector To Benefit From Improved Economic Fundamentals
Little Investment Expected Into Base Metals Capacity
Latest Financial Results
Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data
Recent Financial Data
Table: Alcoa - Key Financial Data
Latest Financial Results
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
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