Over the first six months of 2014, light vehicle sales in Mexico declined 0.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 500,360 units. Recent tax hikes have impacted private consumption in the opening months of 2014, and this has weighed on car sales as consumers delay big ticket purchases. We expect to see a broader pick-up in retail spending later in the year, however, as the impact of these taxes wanes, consumer confidence improves, and the labour market picks up. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for 5.4% growth in passenger car sales in 2014.
Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 20.3% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2014, to 6,248 units. Manufacturing and construction activity in the start of the year also came in below expectations. BMI believes that this, combined with the Q413 surge in heavy truck sales as sentiment in the market improved, created a surplus in the segment, prompting new truck orders to plummet. However, we expect to see something of a correction in the coming months, although sales are likely to remain poor due to the very weak H114 figures. We maintain our forecast for a decline of 10% over the full year.
Light vehicle production in Mexico increased 7.4% y-o-y in the first six months of 2014, to 1,597,594 units. In 2014, BMI forecasts 5.8% growth in passenger car production and a 5.3% increase in light commercial vehicle (LCV) output as exports look set to gain ground over the year and the domestic market will recover from Q214. Exports took a hit in January, and this explains the lacklustre growth in output over the year-to-date - we expect this to pick-up in the coming months, however.
BMI maintains a bullish outlook on the Mexican autos industry, predicated on low labour costs combined with increasing productivity levels; relative weakness in the peso against the US...
The Mexico Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Mexico.Key Benefits
CoverageBMI Industry View
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mexican automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Mexican automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Mexico.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMIs global and regional industry forecasts.Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
BMI forecasts 5.8% growth in vehicle sales in Mexico in 2014 on the back of an expected 5.4% increase in passenger car sales and 6.5% growth in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment.