We expect Croatia's defence budget to be worth USD833.4mn in 2014. For the remainder of the forecast period up to and including 2018, we expect Croatia to spend an average of USD903.9mn on defence.
Although NATO has a requirement for its member states to spend a minimum of 2% of their gross domestic product on defence annually, this requirement is non-binding. We have observed that on average, Croatia has spent 1.6% of its GDP on defence between 2010 and 2013. For 2014, we expect this figure to come in at 1.5%. By 2018 this will be 1.4%.
In BMI's Security Risk Ratings for Europe, Croatia receives a composite domestic risk score of 78, and a composite security rating of 84. Croatia maintains excellent relations with its neighbours around Europe and also in the Balkans; a stark contrast to the devastating wars in the Balkans during the 1990s. Similarly, Croatia maintains good relations with several other states around the world. Although we believe Croatia's susceptibility to terrorist action to be low, the same cannot be said regarding the country's risk from criminal activity. Croatia is used as a transit point for criminal organisations involved in people, narcotics and illegal goods trafficking. Moreover, Croatian territory is also used by criminal organisations as a base for their operations.
The Croatia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Croatia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Croatian defence and security industry.Key Benefits
CoverageGlobal and Regional Political Outlooks
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Croatian defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.SWOT Analysis
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting, along with potential risks in the coming year.
BMI's Croatia Defence & Security Report examines the military and security dynamics of this Balkan nation. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the security challenges faced by Croatia now and in the future. Several facets of Croatia's defence and security posture are examined, including its defence procurement processes, military posture and strategic risks. The report posits that despite the current financial challenges faced by the country, Croatia is broadly continuing on a path of military modernisation.