Egypt Defence & Security Report Q4 2014

Aug 28, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 69 pages - USD $1,295
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We expect Egypt's defence budget to reach USD5.4bn in 2014. We anticipate that it will increase to USD5.9bn in 2016 and then to USD6.5bn the following year. The final two years of our forecast period will see Egypt's defence budget increasing firstly to USD7.1bn in 2017 and then to USD7.6bn during 2018.

We have given Egypt an overall Security Risk rating of 59 for Q414. On average, Egypt has retained an overall Security Risk rating of 55 for the period December 2007 until Q414. Egypt faces a number of distinct security challenges. The country has a moderate risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, it has a moderate chance of experiencing a major terrorist attack along with the strong possibility that it is also likely to experience significant levels of criminal activity in the future.

In early June 2014, Egypt's former Chief of the General Staff and defence minister, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, was declared the victor in Egypt's Presidential election and sworn into office. Among his first acts were an increase in fuel prices and a cut of subsidies for food and energy. Taxes have also been raised on alcohol and cigarettes, with plans afoot to introduce a new property tax and to overhaul the government's goods and services tax. The decision to raise taxes is a bold move in a country where a significant proportion of the population live below the poverty line.

In procurement news, Egypt has procured four 'Gowind' class corvettes from French shipbuilder DCNS. The deal for the acquisition was signed on July 11 2014. The first ship in the class will be constructed in France, with the remainder being built locally in Egyptian yards. Similarly, the Egyptian Air Force will receive new Airbus Military C-295 turboprop freighters following a deal signed to this effect with the aircraft's manufacturer in mid-July 2014.

The Egypt Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Egypt Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Egyptian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits
  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Egypt to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Egyptian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting, along with potential risks in the coming year.


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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.