German chemicals output, excluding pharmaceuticals, rose 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H114 on the back of strengthening domestic sales and capacity utilisation of 85%. Speciality chemicals led sector growth, rising 6.0% y-o-y. However, petrochemicals output grew just 0.5% while polymers fell 1.5%. This is in line with BMI's expectation of an overall stagnation in petrochemicals and polymers, even as value added parts of the production chain will strengthen.
While foreign sales for German production rose 1.0% to EUR58bn, domestic sales grew 3.5% to EUR40bn, leading to a total of EUR98bn, a rise of 2.0% over H113. On the downside, producer prices fell 2.0% y-o-y in the period. In terms of export markets, NAFTA and Eastern Europe were the key growth drivers, with export growth to these regions at 5.0% and 3.0% respectively. Meanwhile, exports to EU-15 and Asia grew just 0.5% while exports to Africa and Latin America shrank 3.5% and 10.5% respectively.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Positive trends within the eurozone - which represents 70% of Germany's chemicals exports - make us cautiously optimistic that the German chemical industry will continue its solid recovery. BMI continues to forecast 2.4% growth in total chemical production, following 1.5% growth in 2013, with macroeconomic indicators and end market forecasts supporting our outlook. This is slightly better than the 2.0% growth forecast by the Verband der Chemischen Industrie (VCI), owing to our assessment of Germany's position as the focus of regional petrochemicals production and innovation.
- The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which creates a free trade area...
The Germany Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Germany Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German petrochemicals industry.Key Benefits
CoverageBMI Industry View
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the German petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the German petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Germany.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The German chemicals industry is likely to make a transition to more high value speciality production amid growing competition and a revival in export markets, although this is likely to be at the expense of petrochemicals and polymers which are enduring a lacklustre market environment.