Colombia Defence & Security Report Q4 2014
As one of the highest military spenders in the Latin American region, Colombia, BMI expects, will perform USD12.5bn of defence spending in 2014. For the remainder of the forecast period (2015-2018) we expect Colombia to spend an average of USD16bn annually on defence, with the defence budget reaching USD18.6bn by 2018.
We have given Colombia an overall security risk rating of 65 for Q414. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk rating which averages 59 for the period January 2009 to Q414. We believe that Colombia retains a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Nevertheless, it remains susceptible to terrorist attack and thus has a low rating in this regard. Similarly, the country is considered to be at a high risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack.
The incumbent president of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos was re-elected in June 2014. Santos will serve a four-year mandate following his win of 51% of the vote beating his rival Oscar Ivan Zuluaga. Following the victory, peace negotiations with the FARC guerrilla group in Cuba are expected to continue. Shortly before the presidential election, Santos revealed that the government has also begun negotiations with the ELN insurgent organisation.
In May 2014 Santos announced that the peace talks with FARC had made significant progress saying that they had got 'the farthest we have ever come in trying to end the war'. FARC and government negotiators have reached agreement...
The Colombia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Colombia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Colombian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Colombian defence and security market.
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Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting, along with potential risks in the coming year.
The Colombian government is involved in ongoing talks with left-wing insurgent group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). At the same time, the peace talks are accompanied by sustained or open-ended ceasefires, as well as disruptions of the country's pipeline network, carried out by rebels, so the country is still dedicating large amounts of GDP to maintaining its significant armed forces. This trend is set to continue in the near term, with medium-term expenditure set to rise.
BMI Industry View
Colombia Security SWOT
Colombia Defence SWOT
Table: Colombia Defence Expenditure (USDmn) 2011 - 2018
Table: Colombia Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 2001-2010
Table: Colombia Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2018 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
Table: Colombia Defence Exports (USDmn) 2010 - 2017
Table: Colombia Defence Imports (USDmn) 2011-2018
Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Latin America Security Risk Ratings
Table: Latin America Regional Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Colombia Security Risk Ratings
Colombia Defence Market Overview
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Procurement Trends and Developments
Colombia Security Overview
Americas Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
Global Political Outlook
Industry Forecast Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Table: Indicators And Weighting
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