- Strong mobile subscription growth continued in Q114, reaching a subscription base of 111.2mn, a 4.1% y-o-y growth. We now expect a total of 130.721mn mobile subscriptions by YE18.
- The number of fixed-line subscribers could be experiencing a sustained period of contraction due to mobile substitution. We forecast 2.64mn subscribers by YE18, representing a 2.5% penetration rate.
- Despite the mobile market effectively being a duopoly, mobile ARPUs continue to trend lower. Without a concerted effort to move towards higher revenue-generating products and subscribers, operator ARPU will continue to fall.
Key Trends And Developments
In March 2014, one of the major international undersea cable systems in the region -- the Asia Pacific Cable Network (APCN) -- suffered two brief breaks in the areas between Taiwan-Japan and China-Korea. This has impacted on telecoms traffic in a large area of the Asia Pacific region, including the Philippines, slowing down internet and data services. Reparation work was completed in April 2014.
In March 2014, PLDT pledged to achieve a 50% 4G-coverage rate by the end of 2014 through the expansion of its LTE network to all major cities in the Philippines. PLDT also announced its intent to raise its fibre network coverage to 90,000km, from 78,000km. Previously, the firm has...
The Philippines Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Philippines's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Philippines Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Philippines.Key Benefits
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Philippines's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Market Data Analysis
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Philippines telecoms market is largely a two-horse race dominated by incumbent Philippine Long Distance Telephone (PLDT) - which owns 63.4% subscription share - and Globe Telecom - with 36.6% share of the mobile market in Q114. A new entrant - media conglomerate ABS-CBN Corporation -launched its MVNO service under the ABS-CBNmobile brand in December 2013 using the network infrastructure of Globe Telecom. Despite the new competition, BMI believes market dynamics is likely to remain in favour of PLDT and Globe Telecom given their strong brand and unassailable scale, which make it hard for new entrants to compete effectively.