Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q4 2014
Key Trends And Developments
- The mobile sector grew by 7.7% y-o-y in FY13 to bring the penetration rate to 121.5%.
- The fixed-line sector contracted by 2.5% y-o-y in FY13, compared to a contraction of 1.6% in FY12.
- Mobile ARPUs continued their trend in 2013, with market weighted average blended ARPU falling by 5% for the year.
- We have included estimates for broadband access through dedicated mobile data devices, boosting our historical data and forecast.
The combination of a solid growth outlook amid robust demand, high EBITDA margins and a favourable regulatory environment bode well for Indonesian tower players. The trend of rising smartphone and tablet adoption in Indonesia, driven by wireless data usage, has increased demand for base stations and tower rollouts. As operators apportion more capex towards coverage rollout, demand for tower sites and base stations will grow.
Indonesian tower companies benefit from a favourable regulatory regime, which prevents foreign companies from owning tower firms and encourages the telecoms operators to share towers rather than building single-tenancy tower sites. These factors explain why independent tower companies in Indonesia enjoyed one of the highest EBITDA margins in the tower business globally in 2013, close to 80%.
The key downside risks to Indonesia's tower industry...
The Indonesia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Indonesia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Indonesia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Indonesia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Market Data Analysis
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Increasing saturation of the mobile market and dec lining voice revenues will force Indo nesia's largest telecoms operators to focus on the development of next- generation fixe d and mobile data networks. The wireline market is witnessing considerable investments in fibre - optic network infrastructure, a development that should drive the uptake of high-value converged services, includ ing IPTV. T he country's mobile operators are accelerating their tower outsourcing and managed services strategies in order to reduce operating costs . This is a sensible move considering their weak bott om line performances .
BMI Industry View
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2011-2018)
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2011-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings - Q3 2014
Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013
Table: Indonesia Prepaid And Postpaid ARPU By Operator (IDR)
Table: Indonesian Mobile Operator Minutes Of Use
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Market Overview
Table: XL Asista
Table: Bakrie Telecom (Fixed wireless)
Asia Pacific Mobile Content
Tablets Are The New TV
Table: Percentage Of Long-Form Video Views By Device
Infrastructure Is A Key Enabler
Table: Telkom Key Fixed-Line Network Developments
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Market Developments
Table: Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players
Table: Key Operator Revenues (US$mn)
Industry Trend Analysis
Table: Strategies Of Asian Top Chat Apps
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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