Our strong outlook for household consumption and fixed investment, combined with Algeria's limited manufacturing industry, means that we see the country increasingly dependent on finished petrochemical products. We expect Algeria's economy to see moderate growth in the coming quarters, underpinned by robust consumer spending and public investment activity. However, difficulties in expanding hydrocarbon exports, combined with high and rising imports mean that we see real net exports weighing on headline growth for the first time in decades. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.2%% this year and 3.4% in 2015, from an estimated 2.9% in 2013.
- Algeria's slow movement towards shale gas exploration has seen other global unconventional plays gain greater investment interest. At the end of May 2014, the Algerian cabinet approved plans to move forward with exploration of the country's shale gas resources. Development of Algeria's shale resources would offer large upside to the country's long-term gas production outlook as well as providing a solid basis for petrochemicals expansion and improved competitiveness.
- While the domestic market will absorb some of the rise in output that is due to come from new plants, the successful expansion of the sector is predicated on growth in the European market, which has remained in the doldrums. New capacity will still be rudimentary by contemporary standards and will lack sufficient processing capacity, leaving the country dependent on imports of semi-finished and finished plastic products.
- Algeria has retained its ninth place in BMI's Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix, even though its score has...
The Algeria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Algeria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Algerian petrochemicals industry.Key Benefits
CoverageBMI Industry View
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Algerian petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Algerian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Algeria.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
We continue to anticipat e market growth within the petrochemicals sector , although we caution that plans to bring onstream new petrochemicals capacities that promise to transform the sector could be delayed. In 2014, the country is likely to see increased petrochemicals imports .