Gabon Oil & Gas Report Q3 2014

Jul 22, 2014 - Business Monitor International - 102 pages
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Recent years has seen an explosion of interest in the highly prospective West African Transform Margin. However, an uptick in exploration offshore Gabon has yielded mixed results, and this quarter a three-well deepwater drilling campaign by Ophir ended dry. Gabon's new hydrocarbons law has also materially worsened both the country's fiscal and licensing terms, and introduced a high degree of regulatory uncertainty. Unless the law is amended, we see Gabon lose investment to other, more attractive West African countries.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil and gas sector are as follows:
  • While we expect some near-term gains in oil production, the longer-term trend for Gabon's oil sector is one of decline, due to both natural depletion at maturing fields and limited new production coming on stream.
  • Although Gabon's deepwater potential offers significant upside risk to our view, a string of disappointing drilling results may dampen interest in expensive exploration campaigns. In addition, the country's new hydrocarbons law has materially worsened fiscal and regulatory terms for international oil and gas companies. Given the abundance of opportunities in the West African upstream, we believe Gabon risks driving investors to other, more attractive frontier players.
  • We forecast gas production rising from 0.07bcm in 2013 to 0.4bcm by 2018. Although exploration poses some upside to this view, the absence of a clear investment plan to capture and monetise gas precludes any larger increase in our forecasts. Harnessing gas will require infrastructure which the country lacks, and we question the commerciality of the country's offshore gas resources.
  • Gabon's oil and gas infrastructure is critically limited. The only significant downstream oil asset is the 24,000b/d SOGARA refinery, built in 1967. The SOGARA refinery is inefficient, underutilised and set to close in 2016. In 2012 Gabon signed a memorandum of understanding with...


The Gabon Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Gabon including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Gabon Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Gabonese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Gabon to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Gabonese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Gabonese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Gabon.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


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About the Publisher
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.