Our outlook for Taiwan's economy has not changed substantially since our last quarterly report. Then, on the back of slightly stronger fourth-quarter 2013 data, we edged up our growth forecast for 2014 from 3.0% to 3.1%. Now, on the back of slightly weaker first-quarter 2014 data, we are dropping back again to a 3.0% forecast for the year as a whole. Essentially, we believe private consumption and exports are easing back a little while investors remain frustrated by difficulties in securing land and labour, which have led to the stalling of a number of projects. The recovery in the US and Europe remains a clear positive for the outward-looking island economy, but this is somewhat offset by the slowdown in its main trade partner, mainland China. We expect GDP growth to accelerate to 4.1% in 2015. Trend growth over the medium term to 2018 will be 3.9% per annum.
Although subdued, the recovery in GDP in 2014 will help to pull activity levels in the country's main ports back into positive territory. This is in contrast to 2013, when we estimate that tonnage throughput in some ports (such as Taichung and Kaohsiung) actually contracted. Growth in 2014 will, however, remain very low in percentage terms. Broadly speaking, Kaohsiung - Taiwan's largest port - remains the most resilient, not least because it is attracting new investment. On the plus side, the policy of cross-straits integration is expected to continue as Taiwan's ports and shipping lines position themselves to work through a series of alliances and partnerships with mainland companies over the next few years.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to increase by 1.3% to 117.188mn tonnes, after an estimated 4.2% contraction in 2013. Over the medium term to 2018 we project an annual average increase of 1.5%.
- Port of Kaohsiung container throughput forecast to grow 2.7% to 10.206mn TEUs in 2014, up from 1.6% growth in 2013; over the medium term...
The Taiwan Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Taiwan.
BMI's Taiwan Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Taiwan.Key Benefits
CoverageBMI Industry View
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Taiwanese shipping market.
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- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.SWOT Analysis
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.Market Overview
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).Company Profiles
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.