2013 saw several large-scale political protests against Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan which, although unlikely to lead to a change in government before scheduled elections in 2015, could still mark a turning point in his decade-long stint in power. While the situation appears to have largely calmed, any escalation in domestic tensions could deter both potential tourists and potential investors. Similarly, should conflict in neighbouring Syria spill across the border into Turkey, we could see a further impact on the tourism market.
Despite these concerns, the inbound travel market remains healthy, with arrivals increasing by 3.5% in 2013 to reach 32.9mn. Over the subsequent five years, we expect to see annual arrivals increase by around 4% per year, meaning that by 2018 Turkey is likely to welcome 39.3mn visitors per year. Europe is likely to continue to dominate the inbound and outbound tourism market; however, over the longer term, we expect to see further diversification away from the West and more towards the Middle East. This diversification will help to balance out any declines should Europe see a return to the conditions of the global credit crunch.
Turkey is experiencing solid annual GDP growth, which is serving to boost private financial consumption, one of the key indicators of spend on outbound travel. Outbound travel grew by 4.8% in 2013, and following growth of around 7% between 2014 and 2018, we expect the number of annual outbound travellers to reach 8.9mn by the end of the current forecast period. This...
The Turkey Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Turkey Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish tourism industry.Key Benefits
CoverageBMI Industry View
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Turkish tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (000), (growth % y-o-y).Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMIs Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.Market Overview
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMIs industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
BMI's report on the Turkish tourism market examines the expected trends across inbound and outbound travel, news in the hotel sector, growth in industry value and changes in the market in terms of travel infrastructure investment and other supporting developments. Overall, the future is looking relatively positive for Turkey's inbound and outbound tourism, with growth expected across the board over our forecast period to 2018.